-Corn exports within expectations – maintain “needed” pace
-Soybean exports within expectations – maintain “needed” pace
-Wheat exports slightly above range of expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 6/17/21, were 1.481 MMT (58.3 million bushels), within the range of market ideas of 1.200-1.625 MMT (47.0-64.0 million bushels), down modestly from the previous week’s 1.611 MMT (63.4 mil bu) but, more importantly maintaining the roughly 50 million bushels/week average “needed” pace in order for 2020/21 exports to reach the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export projection. Over the last three weeks, exports averaged 59.3 million bushels/week vs 45.3 million/week during the same period last year as exports have slowed a bit from the torrid pace during much of March-May (75 mil bu/week), but still more than enough to support the USDA’s annual estimate. It was another active week for China with 795k tonnes being loaded, putting their official remaining unshipped old crop purchases at around 6.6 MMT. Cumulative export inspections of 2.186 billion bushels are still up 73% from last year’s 1.264 billion with 10 full weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 175k tonnes (6.4 million bushels) were within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes (3.7-11.0 mil bu), in line with average exports over the last five weeks of 7.1 million bushels and comparable to the roughly 6.9 million/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Shipping activity for China remains essentially non-existent with only 4k tonnes loaded last week, while export sales data shows they have roughly 685k tonnes in unshipped old crop purchases still on the books. Cumulative export inspections of 2.094 billion bushels are up 56% from last year’s 1.341 billion. With the recent pace of exports keeping up with the USDA annual projection, even in the absence of any shipments to China, we remain mostly comfortable with the USDA’s estimate, with a slight bias of final exports potentially falling slightly short.
U.S. wheat exports, in the 2nd full week of the 2021/22 marketing year, were respectable at 549k tonnes (20.2 mil bu), slightly above the range of market ideas of 300-525k tonnes (11.0-19.3 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 18.4 million, but below last year’s same-week exports of 25.2 million bushels. Cumulative export inspections of 46 million bushels compare to 55 million last year, with shipments needing to average roughly 16.4 million bushels/week throughout the marketing year vs last year’s 17.7 million/week average from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection.
