Softs this week settled mixed: SBH0 +0.10 (+0.79%), KCH0 +6.00 (+5.47%), CCH0 -64 (-2.39%), CTZ9 -1.44 (-2.22%). Mar sugar on Friday climbed to a 1-week high and finished the week up +0.79%. Sugar prices rallied to 1-week highs Friday after the USDA in its bi-annual sugar report Thursday afternoon forecast that global 2019/20 sugar production will drop -3.2% y/y to 174.1 MMT and that global 2019/20 sugar ending stocks will fall -9.9% y/y to 49.58 MMT. The USDA also projects that global 2019/20 sugar consumption will climb +0.8% y/y to 174.684 MMT. Sugar prices had dropped to 1-week lows Thursday on weakness in the Brazilian real which sank to a 4-year low against the dollar Thursday. A weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil’s sugar producers. Sugar prices have support from the outlook for smaller sugar production in India after the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) on Wednesday reported that that India’s sugar production during Oct 1-Nov 15 plunged -64% y/y to 485,000 MT. The ISMA on Nov 5 projected India 2019/20 sugar production will fall -19% y/y to 26.85 MMT.
March arabica coffee on Friday closed lower but still finished the week up sharply by +5.47%. Mar arabica coffee on Thursday rallied to a 4-month high and nearest-futures Dec coffee surged to a 1-year high on the outlook for smaller output and exports from Brazil. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) on Thursday said Brazil 2019/20 coffee production may slide -10.5% y/y to 58 mln bags from 64.8 mln bags in 2018/19. The USDA’s FAS also forecast that Brazil 2019/20 coffee exports will slide -14.7% y/y to 35.32 million bags. Current arabica coffee supplies continue to decline, which is also providing support to coffee prices, after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 15-month low of 2.145 million bags on Friday. Arabica coffee prices were undercut earlier this week by surveys of Brazil’s coffee farms showing “satisfactory” coffee-flowering, which supports a positive outlook for the 2020 coffee crop. Brazilian coffee crop concerns also eased as after Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica coffee growing region, measured 54.5 mm over the past week, or 110% of the historical average.
March cocoa prices on Friday closed lower and finished the week down -2.39%.  Mar cocoa fell to a 1-week low Thursday on adequate supplies from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer. Monday’s data from the Ivory Coast government showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 88,855 MT of cocoa to ports during Nov 11-17, up +6.1% from the year-earlier period. Total arrivals for the season beginning Oct 1 are up +6.0% y/y to 533,952 MT. Mar NY cocoa had posted a contract high Monday and nearest-futures (Dec19) posted a 1-1/2 year nearest-futures high on signs of strength in global cocoa demand and on shrinking supplies. The International Cocoa Organization (ICO) on Nov 14 said the global cocoa market in 2020/21 will have a “very small” deficit of -50,000 MT and that it expects cocoa prices to continue to climb, partly due to the discussion of a “living income differential” in Ivory Coast and Ghana, as well as rising global consumption. Current cocoa supplies are tightening as ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have trended lower over the past five months and posted a 2-3/4 year low of 3.077 million bags on Friday. Also, the Ghana Cocoa Board reported Friday that it purchased 208,224 MT of cocoa from farmers during Oct 1-Nov 14, down -0.8% y/y.
December cotton on Friday closed higher but still finished the week down -2.22%. Dec cotton fell to a 5-week low Thursday on concern the trade turmoil with China will continue and dampen the prospects for U.S. cotton exports. Cotton prices recovered from their worst levels on speculation China will boost its cotton imports after China’s National Food & Strategic Reserves Administration said it will stockpile 500,000 MT of cotton for state reserves. Supplies are ample as the USDA projects U.S. 2019/20 cotton ending stocks at 6.1 mln bales, an 11-year high. Dec cotton slumped to a contract and 3-1/2 year nearest-futures (V19) low Aug 26 when President Trump on Aug 23 raised tariffs on Chinese imports. USDA data shows the share of U.S. cotton of China imports fell to 18% in 2018/19 from 45% in 2017/18, well below the 30% share seen over the previous 5 years. The USDA estimates China 2019/20 cotton ending stocks will fall to 7.238 ln bales, an 8-year low. Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed 68% of the U.S. cotton crop was harvested as of Nov 17, +2 pts above the 5-year average.