-USDA attache lowers China corn import ideas – US corn uncompetitive
-Record Indian wheat crop resulting in strong exports
-Ukraine raises wheat export ideas despite slight downtick in crop estimate
-Russia lowers grain export ideas – wheat quota to be in effect in 2nd half of year
-Egypt tenders for wheat
 The USDA ag attaché in China sees moderating demand for imported corn in 2021/22, particularly for U.S. corn as Ukrainian prices remain more attractive, leaving the attaché to lower their expectations for total new crop Chinese corn imports to 20.0 MMT vs USDA’s current official estimate of 26.0 MMT. They said there is essentially no profit potential currently for corn imported from the U.S., leaving expectations for additional sales of U.S. corn to China very limited, at least for now. The attaché raised their estimate of old crop, 2020/21, Chinese corn imports to a more-realistic 30.0 MMT vs USDA’s official 26.0 MMT estimate, but that has been well known and is of little impact at this point. The attaché sees Chinese hog production declining 5% in 2022, but a continued shift to commercial operations using processed feed will help offset the impact on overall feed demand. They see total feed/residual usage of all grains in 2021/22 rising only 2% (5.5 MMT) from this year to 273.0 MMT vs the 42 MMT (18.7%) increase in feed demand in 2020/21 from 2019/20 levels. Corn’s portion of feed/residual usage, though, is seen rising to 211 MMT from 196 MMT in 2020/21, although the attaché’s estimates are lower than official USDA projections for new crop feed/residual usage of 214 MMT vs 203 MMT old crop. The attaché put this year’s Chinese corn crop at 272.0 MMT, minimally lower than the USDA’s last estimate of 273.0 MMT and still up solidly from last year’s 260.7 MMT. Corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are estimated by the attaché at 207 MMT, in line with the USDA’s last official estimate. The attaché, though, sees old crop ending stocks at 211 MMT, well above USDA’s current 202 MMT estimate.
ï‚· The record Indian wheat crop this year has contributed to strong exports with 3.1 MMT of wheat exported so far in calendar year 2021 vs only around 300k tonnes exported during the same period in 2020. Indian grain industry officials see the potential for total exports in 2021 to reach 4.2-4.4 MMT, which would be an 8-year high, with Indian prices still trading solidly below Black Sea origin into Asian destinations. India harvested a record 109.5 MMT of wheat this year, with
state-run agencies holding more than double required buffer stocks at 51.8 MMT. Ideas are Indian wheat exports could continue at the recent strong pace into mid-2022.
 Ukraine ticked their estimate of this year’s wheat crop lower to 31.6 MMT from 32.0 MMT previously (USDA 33.0 MMT), but still up solidly from last year’s USDAestimated 25.4 MMT. Despite the slight downgrade, the ag ministry raised their estimate of 2021/22 wheat exports to 24.5 MMT from 23.8 MMT previously given the strong pace of exports so far. USDA is currently estimating Ukraine wheat exports this year at 23.5 MMT vs 16.9 MMT last year. The ag ministry left their estimate of the corn crop unchanged at 37.1 MMT (USDA 39.0 MMT/30.3 MMT last year).
ï‚· According to the Interfax new agency, the Russian ag ministry now expects 2021/22 total grain exports to be 45-48 MMT, down from previous ideas of 51.0 MMT. Additionally, it does appear a grain export quota will be established specifically for the Feb 15-June 30, 2022 period, as was the case last year, but an ag ministry official said, “Until the end of the current [calendar] year, there will be no quantitative restrictions on the export of crops.â€
 The Argentine ag ministry said farmers sold 464k tonnes of soybeans over the last week, bringing total sales of this year’s crop to 31.0 MMT (72% of the crop) vs 32.7 MMT sold at this time last year (67% of the crop).
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Nov shipment. The lowest offers for Nov 11-20 shipment periods were $319.97 fob Romanian, $320.99 Russian and $321.80 Ukrainian, while the lowest offers for Nov 21-30 shipment were $321.35 Ukrainian, $323.80 Russian and $324.57 Romanian.
ï‚· Pakistan tendered for an additional 90k tonnes of wheat, with offers due by Oct 13, after having bought around 1.1 MMT of wheat in recent weeks. Turkey tendered for 325k tonnes of corn for Nov 15-Dec shipment, with offers due by Oct 14.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning