-USDA reports soybean cancellations to China/unknown
-Russian winter wheat area seen down for coming coming crop
-France lowers wheat export/ending stocks ideas
-NOPA crush report today at 11:00 AM CT
USDA reported soybean cancellations this morning for 2021/22 delivery of 132k tonnes to China and 196k tonnes to unknown.
Argentina’s ag ministry said farmers have now sold 29.4 MMT of soybeans from this year’s crop, up 476k tonnes for the week, and representing 68% of total production vs sales at this time last year of 31.3 MMT (64% of production). Farmers have now sold 39.7 MMT of this year’s corn crop, up 500k tonnes for the week, representing 79% of the total crop vs sales at this time last year of 36.5 MMT (72% of the crop). They estimate new crop farmer wheat sales have reached 6.4 MMT, an estimated 33% of the coming crop.
Early ideas on Russian winter wheat planted area for the 2022/23 crop are down 0.5-1.0 million hectares (1.2-2.5 mil acres) from this year due to dry conditions in some areas, potential switches to oilseeds and uncertainty over Russia’s export tax plans.
Shipping activity in the NOLA region continues to slowly come back online with Cargill re-opening its Westwego, LA terminal, while power has been restored to Cargill’s Reserve, LA facility but damage assessments continue there with operations still potentially resuming there several weeks away.
Brazilian ag exporter association Anec revised their expectations of September soybean exports up modestly to 4.8 MMT from 4.4 MMT previously, comparable to August exports of 5.0 MMT and above last year’s 4.3 MMT. Corn exports in Sept are now estimated at 2.9 MMT vs 2.67 MMT previously, but down from 4.35 MMT in August and well below last year’s 6.36 MMT.
France lowered their estimate of 2021/22 wheat exports outside the EU to 9.6 MMT from 10.5 MMT previously, but still up solidly from last year’s 7.5 MMT as a result of recent crop assessment reductions. Export ideas within the EU were raised to 8.0 MMT from 7.3 MMT previously (6.0 MMT last year). The revisions prompted a reduction expected 21/22 wheat ending stocks to 2.9 MMT from 3.7 MMT previously and compares to 2.65 MMT last year.
Malaysian palm oil/product exports during Sept 1-15 were estimated at 832k tonnes, up sharply (54%) from 541k tonnes during Aug 1-15 according to AmSpec.
Today at 11:00 AM CT, NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush data update. The average estimate of August soybean crush by NOPA members is 154.2 million bushels (146.0-185.6 million range of ideas), down slightly from 155.1 million in July and would be down 6.6% from last year’s 165.1 million. While recent-month NOPA crush has been down 9-10% from last year, the average estimate appears appropriate as last year’s August crush finally pulled back from the record pace over the prior 8 months, reflecting the first month to not set a record at the time since December. July nationwide crush was 7.3% larger than NOPA-member crush, which would imply 164.2 million bushels crushed for the month based on the average trade estimate, which would then put 2020/21 total crush at 2.137 billion bushels vs the USDA’s current 2.140 billion bushel estimate. The average estimate of end August soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.555 billion pounds (1.500-1.60 billion range of ideas) vs 1.617 billion in July and would be the lowest in 10 months but still slightly above last year’s 1.519 billion.