-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT
-Forecasts add rains in Dakotas
-July SBO deliveries larger than expected
-Argentine farmer soybean sales slow a bit
-Another night of freezing temps for parts of Brazil safrinha corn crop
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Acreage report will be released today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report
commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44340. A summary of the trade estimates is on the last page.
The GFS and Euro increased rain ideas for IA and MN in the 6-10 day period, with the Euro also adding rains for the Dakotas.
ï‚· Another night of freezing temps hit Brazilian safrinha corn areas in Parana and MGDS overnight, also impacting crops in parts of Paraguay, as well.
ï‚· A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers introduced three biofuels-related bills yesterday to support prospects of increasing biofuel usage going forward. One bill would provide a tax credit to blenders and retailers for each gallon of E15 or greater ethanol content sold, another would provide $1 billion in grants to pay for the installation of higher ethanol blend storage tanks and pumps at retailers, while the third would provide a $200/car tax credit for automakers of flex fuel vehicles. The plan for the bills was first reported on June 21 and officially introduced yesterday.
 Argentina’s ag minister said the country’s farmers have now sold 23.0 MMT of this year’s soybean crop, reflecting sales of 519k tonnes in the latest week, a slowdown from the recent pace in which 700-800k tonnes/week has been sold. This year’s sales pace, reflecting 53% of the expected 43.5 MMT crop, is in line with last year’s relative sales pace of 25.8 MMT which also
reflected 53% of the 49.5 MMT crop. Farmers are estimated to have sold 31.1 MMT (65%) of the expected 48.0 MMT corn crop
vs 28.1 MMT (55%) of last year’s 51.0 MMT crop.
ï‚· First notice day July delivery activity was mostly as expected with no corn deliveries issued vs 0-100 expected according to wire services, and no SBM deliveries (0-200 expected) while soybeans saw 13 contracts put out (0-200 expected) with a last trade date of 2/25/21. However, soybean oil deliveries were larger than expected at 427 contracts (6/25/21 last trade date), all being put out by ADM. There were no CBOT or KCBT wheat deliveries, with wire service-reported expectations of 0-400 contracts and 0-200 contracts, respectively. MPLS wheat, though, saw 200 contracts put out by CHS and were nearly current with the oldest long of 6/25/21. Oats saw 9 contracts put out, while there were 300 contracts of rough rice delivered.
ï‚· India lowered the base import tax on crude palm oil to 10% from 15% for July-Sept, aiding palm oil import prospects vs soy and sun oils. In total, the import tax on palm oil will now be 30.25% vs 35.75% previously. India also announced they will allow
imports of RBD palm oil for six months after restricting imports of refined products since the start of the year to support local
refiners.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 55k tonnes of South African corn at +233.82 cents CZ1 (~$304/tonne) c&f for LH Sept-FH Oct shipment. No U.S. corn was offered in the tender
ï‚· South Korea bought a small quantity of U.S. wheat of varying classes overnight highlighting the significant price spread between the classes, as well as with other global supplies. The results showed HRW priced at $283.65/tonne fob, white wheat at $312.77/tonne and DNS at $343.36-$345.20/tonne fob. For comparison, Thailand passed on their recent tender for 198k tonnes of feed wheat, which saw offers of $291/tonne c&f, while Turkey received offers for Ukrainian wheat at $262.85/tonne c&f in their recent tender.