-Attache sees continued Brazilian soybean area/production expansion next year
-Attache sees lower Brazilian corn production/exports than USDA this year
-Decent rains in Plains/South American forecasts
-Trade estimate summary for Friday’s USDA report
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be released Friday, April 9 at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43468. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
The USDA ag attaché in Brazil is in agreement with the USDA’s official soybean crop estimate of 134.0 MMT, reflecting a new record, increasing from last year’s 128.5 MMT. For the most part, the attaché holds a similar view to USDA regarding the new crop balance sheet with this year’s exports estimated at 85.0 MMT (USDA 85.1 MMT/81.7 MMT last year), with crush at 47.0 MMT (USDA 46.5 MMT/46.5 MMT last year). Despite the record crop, ending stocks are estimated to remain historically low at 1.8 MMT vs USDA’s official 2.0 MMT estimate and last year’s 1.6 MMT (USDA 2.0 MMT). In an early look at next year’s situation, the attaché expects continued expansion in Brazilian soybean area to 40.0 million hectares (98.8 million acres), allowing for production to set another record at 141.0 MMT, with exports seen rising to 87.0 MMT and crush to 48.0 MMT. Regarding the products, the attaché sees this year’s SBM exports at 17.0 MMT vs USDA’s 16.7 MMT and last year’s 17.0 MMT, ticking up to 17.5 MMT in next year’s outlook. SBO exports this year are estimated at 1.0 MMT vs USDA’s 1.15 MMT estimate (1.1 MMT last year), and declining next year to 700k tonnes. The attaché sees strong domestic usage of SBO than USDA with this year estimated at 8.4 MMT vs USDA’s 8.0 MMT and rising next year to 9.1 MMT, with the increase due to strong industrial usage (biodiesel).
Looking at corn, the USDA ag attaché sees this year’s total crop at 105.0 MMT, moderately below USDA’s official 109.0 MMT, but still up somewhat from last year’s 102.0 MMT and a new record. Accordingly, the attaché’s 37.0 MMT export estimate is below USDA’s 39.0 MMT and compares to last year’s 35.2 MMT. Ending stocks this year are estimated by the attaché at a 9-year low of 4.2 MMT, solidly below USDA’s 6.3 MMT estimate and down from last year’s 5.2 MMT (USDA 4.8 MMT). With historically high prices and low stocks, the attaché expects further corn area expansion next year to 20.0 million hectares (49.4 mil acres) from this year’s 19.5 mil hectares (48.2 mil acres), allowing for an increase in production to 114.0 MMT and
exports to 40.0 MMT.
Brazilian ag consultant Agroconsult notes risks to this year’s safrinha corn crop given the late planting with an estimated 38% of the largest-producing state’s crop in Mato Grosso planted outside the ideal window. Their baseline scenario, assuming average weather and normal first frost, they see the safrinha crop at 78.3 MMT, below CONAB’s 82.8 MMT but still up modestly from last year’s 75.1 MMT. They see the soybean crop at 137.1 MMT vs CONAB’s 135.1 MMT and USDA’s 134.0 MMT. Agroconsult sees this year’s Brazilian soybean exports at 85.0 MMT and corn at 34.3 MMT.
Malaysian palm oil exports in March were solid at 1.245 MMT, rising from 1.053 MMT in Feb and 1.104 MMT in Jan, while also being better than last year’s March exports of 1.121 MMT.
Thailand’s tender for 504k tonnes of feed wheat for May-December shipment saw a lowest offer of $268/tonne c&f, with other offers ranging from $269.50-$290.00/tonne c&f.
Egypt ended up buying 345k tonnes of wheat for Aug 1-10 shipment in this week’s tender, with 290k tonnes Russian ($251.00-$252.75/tonne c&f) and 55k tonnes Ukrainian at $252.15/tonne c&f.
An area of low pressure still looks to bring rains of .50-1” to the northeast 1/3 of KS as well as the eastern 1/3 of OK and TX with generally less than .35” for the rest of KS and little elsewhere. Most of these rains look to be over by midday tomorrow, with dry weather for the rest of the week and weekend.
The European model’s 6-10 day outlook has .50-1.25” across the southern 1/3rof KS, most of OK and the northern 1/3 of TX, with totals of .10-.50” in the rest of KS. The GFS sees totals of .50-1” to fall in the western ½ of KS, OK and the eastern ½ of the TX panhandle and north central TX.
In Brazil, rains of .30-1” fell across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and the western ½ of Minas Gerais, with totals generally under .25” in Santa Catarina, southern Parana and northern RGDS. Rains of .75-1.5”+ will fall in Mato Grosso and Goias, with dry weather elsewhere the next 5 days. The 6-10 day outlook shows .50-1” in most of Mato Grosso and northern Goias with .40-1” in Parana and Santa Fe.
Widespread 1-2” rains are expected across Argentina over the next 5 days.