-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT
-Ukraine corn area at risk to decline
-Ukraine wheat values remain under pressure
-Argentina dry through 10-day period
-Oilseed Crushing report tomorrow
USDA’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will be released today at 11:00 AM CT. The quarterly reports have held considerable surprises at times in recent years and with balance sheet projections already at historically low levels, market reaction/risk is clearly elevated. Our pre-report commentary can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/43373. A summary of the
average trade estimates is on the following page. Reminder U.S. markets are closed on Good Friday.
 Tomorrow afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseed Crushings report. The average estimate of U.S. soybean crush in February is 165.1 million bushels (164.0-170.0 million range of ideas), reflecting a 5.8% decline from last year’s Feb crush of 175.3 million bushels vs NOPAmember crush in February down 6.7% from last year. The average estimate reflects U.S.-wide crush 6.4% larger than NOPA crush, exactly the same difference in January, but that was the largest deviation between the two in six months, as it averaged 5.8% during Aug-Dec. The average estimate of end February U.S. soybean oil stocks is 2.253 billion pounds (2.225-2.275 billion range of ideas), down slightly from 2.306 billion in January and reflecting U.S.-total stocks 28.2% larger than NOPA – exactly the same deviation as in January. Year ago Feb SBO stocks were 2.377 billion pounds.
 A farmer survey conducted by APK-Inform indicated the potential for Ukrainian corn area to decline 14% from last year with some producers shying away from corn following last year’s drought-impacted season in which production fell to 29.5 MMT from 35.9 MMT in 2019/20, with average yields falling nearly 25% nationwide. However, favorable spring wheat could moderate the potential acreage decline, while Ukraine’s official estimates reflects ideas for only a minor decline in area to 5.3 million hectares (13.1 mil acres) from 5.4 mil hectares (13.3 mil acres) last year.
ï‚· Ukrainian wheat export values continue to tumble, with APK-Inform saying prices have fallen $23/tonne since the start of last week, with 12.5% protein supplies now at $251-$256/tonne fob Black Sea.
ï‚· South Korea bought 50k tonnes of wheat from the U.S. of mixed classes, as well as 30k tonnes of wheat from Canada, all for July shipment, in routine business. For reference, 11.5% protein U.S. HRW was bought at $251.59/tonne c&f, 14% protein U.S. DNS at $267.30/tonne c&f, and 13.5% Canadian western red spring at $272-273/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Thailand passed on their tender for 504k tonnes of feed wheat for May-Dec shipment with offers around $280/tonne c&f being too high.
ï‚· South Korea bought 60k tonnes of South American soybean meal for FH Aug shipment at $479.35/tonne c&f.
 In a completely symbolic move, Ukraine banned the import of wheat and sunoil from Russia as the two remain at odds following Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014. Ukraine, being a notable exporter of both commodities, certainly does not need either from Russia.
Weather
The Argentine forecast remains unchanged, with dry conditions expected through the 10-day period.
Rains will be confined to the northern Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days, with totals of 1-2†in Mato Grosso and totals of .25-.75†in the northern 1/3rd to ½ of Goias and most of Minas Gerais. The 6-10 day period shows 1-2†in Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, while changes have added .30-.80â€+ for Sao Paulo, Parana and Santa Catarina, with light rains elsewhere.
The U.S. Southern Plains look mostly dry over the next 10 days, while the European does show the potential for <.35†in western KS and .35-1†to in eastern KS in the 6-10 day period. For the Midwest, mostly dry conditions are expected over the next 5 days, while the 6-10 day period shows.50-1†rains in northern areas, while less than .50†is expected south.