-Soaring natgas prices slowing ethanol production
-Algeria wheat purchase less than expected
-No USDA sales announcements
-EIA/Export Sales delayed one day due to holiday
It’s another quiet news morning for the grain markets, with overnight price action leaning lower, led by wheat. Winterkill damage assessments are essentially impossible until the spring thaw so with the most severe cold now past (hopefully), the immediate concerns are easing a bit. Disappointing tender results also weighed on wheat a bit. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum Thursday/Friday will be watched closely, with Friday’s balance sheets usually garnering the most attention, but tomorrow morning’s acreage ideas will get things rolling. South American is back from the Carnival holiday, while China remains on holiday.
 While not expected to be reflected in this week’s EIA ethanol data (delayed until Thursday due to the Presidents’ Day holiday), U.S. ethanol production numbers over the next several weeks could reflect considerable reductions as a number of plants reduce operations given the prolonged frigid temperature regime across much of the country resulting in astronomical price spikes for prompt natgas supplies. Ethanol plants who have not forward-contracted natural gas simply cannot afford current prices, while some that have forward contracted are selling back natgas at considerable profit, then needing to reduce run rates accordingly.
ï‚· Algeria is believed to have bought only 30-60k tonnes of wheat following their recent tender, much less than the 500k+ tonnes they typically buy when tendering. It is believed France will be the supplier, with price paid between $320-$321/tonne c&f. This tender specified delivery into two smaller Algerian ports, which cannot handle large vessel sizes, limiting the potential suppliers to nearby locations as well as the amount purchased given the higher relative shipping costs associated with smaller vessels.
ï‚· South Korea bought 69k tonnes of corn, expected to be U.S. origin, at $295.40/tonne c&f for May shipment, after tendering for 140k tonnes.
ï‚· Philippines reportedly passed on their recent tender for 145k tonnes of wheat for April-June delivery citing offered prices being too high.
 Export Sales will be released on Friday this week due to Monday’s holiday.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
Weather
Rains of .50-1.5†fell across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and MGDS, with totals of .25-.75†in most of Minas Gerais, while other
areas were dry. No major changes in the forecast with 2-4†expected for most of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and the northern ½ of MGDS in the next 5 days, while all other areas see generally less than .35â€. The 6-10 day outlook shows 1-2†in most areas. Argentina was dry yesterday and looks to remain so for the next five days, with the only exception being .25-.75†in far western growing regions, while this morning’s guidance also added similar amounts in most of Buenos Aries, as well. The 6-10 day period shows less than .50†amounts with coverage around 75%.