-CONAB tweaks soybean/corn crop estimates lower
-USDA reports decent-sized soybean sales in daily announcements
-Argentina lifts corn export sale restriction
-South American rains favorable
-Ukraine asked to limit corn exports
Corn continued to move strongly higher overnight following yesterday’s limit up performance. The daily limit for corn expands to 40 cents today. Yesterday’s USDA reports put corn in a clear demand-rationing situation, putting increased focus on weekly demand updates such as Export Sales and ethanol production numbers.
CONAB slightly lowered their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 133.7 MMT from 134.5 MMT last month and compares to 124.8 MMT last year (USDA 133.0 MMT/126.0 MMT last year). They currently estimate new crop soybean exports at 85.7 MMT vs USDA’s 85.1 MMT estimate and this year’s 82.0 MMT (USDA). CONAB tweaked the total corn crop lower to 102.3 MMT from 102.6 MMT last month (102.5 MMT last year) and remains well below the USDA’s current 109.0 MMT estimate. CONAB sees the 1st corn crop at 23.9 MMT (24.2 MMT last month) and the 2nd crop (safrinha) at 76.8 MMT (unchanged) vs 75.1 MMT last year. They left their new crop corn export estimate unchanged from last month at 35.0 MMT, which would be nearly unchanged from this year’s 34.5 MMT and is well below USDA’s 39.0 MMT estimate.
USDA reported the sale of 464k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning, 396k tonnes for 2020/21 and 68k for 2021/22.
Just days after imposing a 30k tonne/day limit on corn export registrations, which replaced the previous full ban on sales through the end of February, the Argentine government lifted the restriction and instead said a commission would be named to monitor domestic corn prices moving forward.
Ukraine’s livestock producers’ associations have reportedly asked the government to limit corn exports to 22.0 MMT this year in order to ensure supplies for feed purposes. USDA is currently estimating Ukrainian corn exports at 24.0 MMT vs last year’s 28.9 MMT. Ukraine has exported roughly 9.7 MMT of corn so far in 2020/21.
Brazilian ag exporter association Anec sees soybean exports in January at 1.052 MMT, which would compare to last year’s official Jan exports of 1.397 MMT and December’s 274k tonnes. They see January corn exports at 2.121 MMT vs 5.006 MMT in
December and 2.103 MMT last year.
Russia is reportedly considering imposing a 25 euros/tonne export tax on corn and 10 euros/tonne tax on barley exports for the Feb 1-March 31 period. The overall impact of such a move would be quite limited on a global impact basis as they only export around 3 MMT of corn and 5 MMT of barley annually, though.
Ukraine’s state meteorological office said there have been no weather threats to winter crops so far this month with mostly tepid conditions being seen.
Brazil saw 1-2” across much of RGDS yesterday, with .25-.75”+ in around 75% of the remainder of crop areas. 1-3” is expected for most areas north of Parana in the next 5 days, with totals of .75-1.5”+ elsewhere. The 6-10 day period shows rains continuing with 1-3”+ expected for most areas, with the exception of western ½ of Minas Gerais, where totals of <.50” are seen. Argentina saw 1-2” across the northern 1/3 to 1/3 of Santa Fe, Entre Rios and most of Corrientes yesterday. The next round of rains is expected over the weekend with .75-1.5”+ amounts and coverage close to 100%. The 6-10 day period looks dry at this time, but a chance for rains returns for the 11-15 day period at this point.