-Spring wheat tour finds expectedly-low yield prospects
-China thought to buy new crop corn
-Russian wheat yields slip
-Steady Argentine farmer selling continues
-Rains added in 11-15 day outlook
Near term rain ideas remain on the limited side, although better amounts in the 11-15 day period were seen in this morning’s model runs, while there is no concerning heat across the belt through the 15-day outlook period.
 The Wheat Quality Council’s day 1 spring wheat tour results showed what was expected with significantly reduced yield expectations of 29.5 bushels/acre in the 100 fields surveyed vs 2019’s same-route results of 45.6 bu/acre (no tour last year due to COVID), and well below the 5-year average of 43.3 bu/acre. Moreover, the day 1 yield assessment was the 2nd lowest ever for the route in available data back to 1996, with only 2002’s 27.6 bu/acre estimate being lower. The tour will continue today and tomorrow, with final results to be released Thursday afternoon. In the recent years, the tour has badly missed actual yield potential, underestimating the 2019 HRS yield by 4.2 bu/acre and 2018 by 6.2 bu/acre, while also being lower than the actual HRS yield in 2017 and 2016, as well, but by a lesser degree. However, from 2010-2015, the tour overestimated the HRS yield in five of the six years. USDA put the ND “other spring†wheat yield at 28.0 bu/acre in this month’s Crop Production report.
ï‚· There is talk China may have bought up to 2 MMT of U.S. corn for Dec-Feb shipment so confirmation will be sought in USDA sales announcements tomorrow/Friday.
 The Argentine Ag Secretary estimated farmers sold 748k tonnes of soybeans over the last week, up from the previous week’s 660k tonnes, putting total sales so far at 25.8 MMT, 59% of the estimated crop, vs 27.9 MMT sold at this time last year (57% of the crop). Farmers sold roughly 1 MMT of corn last week (900k tonnes previous week), bringing total sales so far to 34.6 MMT (72% of the crop) vs 31.6 MMT sold last year at this time (62% of the crop).
 With roughly 37% of Russia’s wheat crop now harvested, yields have slipped back a bit from previous levels, now running roughly 3% below year ago levels after last week’s update showed overall yields comparable to last year with 23% of the crop harvested. USDA is currently estimating Russia’s wheat yield to be down 1.7% from last year.
ï‚· During Bunge’s quarterly earnings call, the CEO said he expects China’s large-scale corn imports this year “to repeat and be sustainable.â€
 A decline in Indonesia’s crude palm oil reference price will result in export taxes being lowered to $93/tonne in August from $116/tonne in July ($183/tonne June), while the export levy in August, assessed to support the biodiesel industry, will remain unchanged from July at $175/tonne.
ï‚· Egypt ended up buying 180k tonnes of wheat (120k Ukraine/60k Romania) as a result of their recent tender.
 South Africa bumped their estimate of this year’s corn crop up to 16.4 MMT from 16.2 MMT previously (USDA 17.0 MMT) and compares to last year’s 15.3 MMT (USDA 15.8 MMT).