-Soybean complex continues to lead grain markets higher as Argentine strike drags on
-Export sales uninspiring
-Brazilian soybean crop ideas lowered
-Some rains in Argentine forecast
NOTE: CME grain markets will have an early close tomorrow at 12:05 PM CT, will be closed Friday and will have a regular overnight session Sunday into Monday.
 Brazilian ag exporter association Anec’s December grain export ideas held mostly steady in their latest update with corn exports for the month seen at 4.42 MMT (4.46 MMT previously) vs 4.89 MMT in Nov and 4.16 MMT last year. Dec soybean exports are seen at 120k tonnes (89k tonnes previously) vs 1.5 MMT in Nov and 3.3 MMT last year.
 Brazilian grain growers association Aprosoja lowered their estimate of this year’s soybean crop to 127.0 MMT from 129.0 MMT previously, still up slightly from last year’s USDA-estimated crop of 126.0 MMT (CONAB 124.8 MMT), but well off their high estimate of the crop a few months ago of 134.5 MMT and USDA’s current 133.0 MMT estimate.
ï‚· As the Argentine strike enters its 14th day, the soybean complex continues to see solid price gains as essentially all crushing and export activity at Rosario remains at a standstill. Other unions related to Argentine maritime and port sectors announced they will begin a 36-hour strike today in solidarity.
ï‚· China imported 1.23 MMT of corn in November vs 1.14 MMT in October and 100k tonnes last year November. 2020 calendar year-to-date corn imports of 9.0 MMT compare to 4.1 MMT last year. Wheat imports in November of 800k tonnes compare to 630k in October and 450k tonnes last year, with 2020 YTD imports of 7.48 MMT vs 2.99 MMT last year. Barley imports were 1.11 MMT vs 1.34 MMT in Oct and 410k tonnes last year, putting YTD imports at 7.1 MT vs 5.7 MMT last year, while China imported 240k tonnes of sorghum in Nov vs 530k in Oct and 60k tonnes last year, bringing YTD imports so 4.3 MMT vs 0.8 MMT last year.
ï‚· NOTE: Next week’s Export Sales report will be released on Thursday, 12/31/20, as usual. Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42446 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were a marketing year low at only 353k tonnes (13.0 million bushels), coming in well below market expectations of 550-800k tonnes and were down from the previous week’s 33.0 million bushels and last year’s same-week sales of 24.3 million. New net sales to China for the week were only 137k tonnes, but again there were 396k tonnes in previously-reported “unknown” sales switched to China, bringing their 2020/21 total commitments to 31.8 MMT vs 10.9 MMT at this time last year.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales of 651k tonnes (25.6 mil bu) were at the bottom of market expectations of 600k-1.0 MMT, were down notably from sales over the previous four weeks of 53.6-83.6 million bushels and were the 2nd lowest of the first 16 weeks of 2020/21 so far.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales of 394k tonnes (14.5 mil bu) were within market expectations of 300-500k tonnes, but were down from the previous week’s 19.8 mil bu, were well below last year’s same-week sales of 26.3 mil bu and were the lowest in five weeks.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales were 224k tonnes, at the bottom of market expectations of 200-350k tonnes, but well above last year’s same-week sales of 138k tonnes and continue to run solidly above the roughly 159k tonnes/week “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales were decent at 20.9k tonnes, the best in four weeks, after three weeks of very limited sales, beating market expectations of 5-15k tonnes and keeping up with the average “needed†sales pace.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .25-.80â€, with a few isolated heavier totals, from the northern ½ of MGDS and Sao Paulo north, with things dry to the south. No major changes in the forecast through the 10-day outlook. Rains of 1-2â€+ are expected across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, with totals of .50-1â€+ in the northern ½ of MGDS and Sao Paulo in the next 5 days, with little expected for Parana into Santa Catarina and RGDS. The 6-10 day period sees totals of .75-1.5â€+ to fall in all areas.
In Argentina, rains of generally less than .35†fell across the southern ½ of Buenos Aries and La Pampa, with dry weather in the rest of the Argentine growing regions yesterday. In the 5-day outlook, this morning’s forecast now shows rains of .40-1†in most locations with the exception of the eastern growing regions of Buenos Aries, Entre Rios and Corrientes. The 6-10 day outlook is holding onto ideas for .35-1†widespread rains for essentially all growing regions early to middle of next week.