-Higher Canadian wheat area expected for 2022/23
-Algeria’s large wheat purchase includes good amount of Russian origin
-Ukraine not planning any further wheat export limits – for now
-Flooding cuts rail access to Vancouver ports
-USDA reports soybeans sold to China/SBO to India
-Cattle on Feed report Friday
-Egypt tenders for wheat
ï‚· A Canadian ag ministry official said early ideas on 2022/23 wheat area are for about a 6% increase which, based on average
yields, could produce a spring wheat crop around 22 MMT vs this year’s crop last estimated at 15.3 MMT by Stats Canada.
Additionally, durum area could rise by 10% from this year, to produce a 5.5 MMT crop based on average yields vs this year’s 3.5 MMT crop. The 2018-2020 spring wheat crops ranged from 24.1-26.0 MMT, while the durum crops were 5.0-6.6 MMT during the 3-year period.
 Algeria is believed to have bought around 800k tonnes of wheat following its recent tender, with purchasing delayed one day from the initial tender terms as additional offers were awaited. Prices paid were in a range of $382.50-$384.00/tonne c&f with shipment periods of Dec-Jan. It is thought around a third of the total amount could be Russian following Algeria’s relaxing of insect tolerances to allow Russian wheat to compete. Despite the concerns about rising Russian export taxes, they continue to be very aggressive in global tenders, with 2nd half Dec shipment seen as the likely timeframe for the Russian portion of this
purchase. Algeria typically buys mostly French wheat, but it is believed much of the rest of the purchase will go to Poland and
Argentina.
 A Ukrainian deputy ag minister said they are not considering any further intervention in wheat exports for the 2021/22 marketing year beyond the already mutually agreed upon 25.3 MMT limit established in October between the government and exporters. USDA is currently estimating Ukraine wheat exports at 24.0 MMT vs last year’s 16.9 MMT, while current record exports of 21.0 MMT occurred in 2019/20. Ukraine has exported around 13 MMT of wheat so far this, leaving 12+ MMT still allowed under the agreed-upon cap. The minister said the pace of exports will continue to be monitored and, if needed, further actions will be considered down the road, but it appears for now, despite the fast early pace of shipments, there is plenty of room for continued strong exports in the coming months.
ï‚· Heavy flooding and landslides in British Columbia have cut all rail access to Canadian ports in Vancouver. Some see the potential for at least partial resumption by the weekend, while others feel the damage is more extensive and the halt could last weeks.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China and 30k tonnes of soybean oil to India for 2021/22 delivery this
morning.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Jan 1-15 shipment. The lowest offer was a
single cargo of Romanian wheat at $371.97/tonne c&f ($346.97 fob), while Ukrainian and Russian wheat offered at $376.00-
$379.31/tonne c&f ($348.00-$351.36 fob). While French wheat was competitively offered on a fob basis, higher freight left it
uncompetitive.
ï‚· Friday afternoon, the USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of On Feed as of November 1 is 99.8% of last year (98.9-100.4 range of ideas) vs Oct 1 at 98.6. October placements are estimated at 102.2 (98.5-104.9 range) vs 97.1 last month, while October marketings are estimated at 96.3 (95.7-97.8 range) vs 96.9 a month ago.
ï‚· The Philippines bought 220k tonnes of feed wheat for Jan-April shipment periods, with most expected to be Australian, and
believed priced in the high $340s/tonne c&f. Some think one of the cargos may end up being Indian origin.
ï‚· South Korean feedmills bought 130k tonnes of optional-origin corn overnight at $316.95-$319.67/tonne c&f for Jan shipment.