-USDA attache pulls back Chinese soybean import ideas
-No USDA sales announcements again
-Decent rains in Brazil forecast, but Argentina mostly dry
Equity and energy markets are higher this morning on optimism President Trump may pull out a victory in yesterday’s election, with several key states too close to call which could give him the win if they go his way, while it appears Republicans should maintain control of the Senate. USDA monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out next Tuesday, September 10. Our pre-report commentary/analysis will be posted later today.
 The USDA ag attaché in China lowered their estimate of China’s 2020/21 soybean imports to 95.0 MMT vs the USDA’s official 100 MMT estimate, reflecting a slight decline from 2019/20 imports of 98.5 MMT (USDA 97.4 MMT). The pullback in imports ideas was prompted by the massive late 19/20 imports of Brazilian soybeans, which the attaché sees pushing Chinese old crop soybean ending stocks up to 27.4 MMT vs USDA’s official 25.7 MMT estimate and up sharply from last year’s 20.0 MMT. Even with the expected increase in crush in 2020/21 to 95.0 MMT from 90.0 MMT last year (USDA official estimates: 99.0 MMT 20/21, 91.5 MMT 19/20), imports of 95.0 MMT would allow their ending stocks to be maintained at a substantial 26.8 MMT. Feed demand continues to rise in order to supply the rebounding hog population with total feed production in September up 6.2% from August and an 18.1% increase from year ago levels. The attaché sees 20/21 soybean meal feed usage rising to 73.0 MMT from 69.0 MMT last year, but is below USDA’s official ideas of 76.2 MMT/70.2 MMT. The attaché is also less optimistic on China’s soybean oil demand, with 20/21 domestic usage estimated at 17.2 MMT vs 16.4 MMT last year, while the USDA is officially at 18.7 MMT and 17.0 MMT, respectively.
 Major Chinese hog breeder/producer New Hope Liuhe, part of the country’s largest feed manufacturer/ag conglomerate New Hope Group, saw net profits in the first three quarters of 2020 rise nearly 66% from last year as the volume of hog sales rose more than 83% during the period from last year.
 Brazilian official trade data showed 2.493 MMT of soybeans were exported in October vs 4.471 MMT in September and 5.076 MMT last year, bringing marketing year-to-date (Feb-Oct) exports to 80.3 MMT vs 63.8 MMT last year. The USDA’s local
marketing year export estimate of 81.0 MMT appears very likely to be exceeded, even with the expected sharp decline and
limited exports over the final three months of the year. Brazil exported 5.157 MMT of corn in October vs 6.6 MMT in September and 6.0 MMT last year, bringing March-Oct marketing year-to-date exports to 22.8 MMT vs 29.0 MMT last year and would leave 11.2 MMT remaining to export based on the USDA’s 34.0 MMT annual estimate vs last year’s 10.7 MMT during Nov-Feb.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Based on preliminary data, French soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations in October hit a marketing year high (July-Oct) of 703k tonnes, prompted by shipments of 524k tonnes to China – the largest monthly wheat exports to China in data available back to 2009/10.
 With Ukraine’s winter wheat crop 92% complete, the majority of the crop is currently in good/satisfactory condition according to the country’s weather bureau.
Weather
Rains of .25-.75†fell across the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, while the rest of Brazil and all of Argentina was dry. In Brazil, rains in the next 5 days will be confined to most of Minas Gerais and the far northern sections of Goias with totals expected to be mostly .50-1†with a few isolated 1â€+ possible as well. The 6-10 day period sees widespread.50-1†rains, isolated 1â€+, covering 75-85% of growing regions. The next 10 days still look mostly dry in Argentina with the only exception being a few scattered showers Friday producing less than .20â€, with coverage of around 50%.