-Stats Canada quarterly wheat stocks report sharply higher than expected
-USDA attache sees modest increase in Chinese soybean imports
-U.S. corn/soybean conditions remain historically low
-Egypt tenders for wheat
-USDA reports routine soybean sales to China
-Trade estimate summary for Friday’s USDA reports
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out on Friday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45054, while a summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page. Due to Monday’s holiday, this week’s regular USDA/EIA reports will be delayed one day from their usual releases. Accordingly, the EIA’s weekly ethanol data will be out on Thursday and Export Sales on Friday. The CFTC’s COT data will still be out on Friday as usual, though.
 Statistics Canada released their equivalent of the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report this morning, providing grain stocks data as of July 31. All wheat stocks as of July 31 were estimated at 5.705 MMT, massively above average market expectations of 4.8 MMT, well above the entire range of ideas of 4.2-5.2 MMT and up from last year’s 5.499 MMT. Durum wheat stocks as of July 31 were put at 752k tonnes, below average expectations of 795k (655-973k range) and nearly unchanged from last year’s 737k. July 31 canola stocks were estimated at 1.767 MMT, well above average expectations of 1.2 MMT (900k-1.5 MMT range of ideas), but nearly half of last year’s 3.435 MMT, while oat stocks of 659k tonnes were well above average expectations of 476k tonnes (418-514k range) and last year’s 426k. July 31 barley stocks of 711k tonnes were in line with average expectations of 674k (475-968k range) and compared to 957k tonnes last year.
 The USDA ag attaché in China sees 2021/22 soybean imports at 101 MMT, in line with the USDA’s current official estimate and up modestly from 2020/21’s 98 MMT (USDA officially at 97 MMT). The slight increase in imports expected over the coming year is due to expectations for higher soybean meal usage in hog and poultry rations. Despite expectations for lower hog/pork production in 2022, the continuing shift to commercialized production operations from small backyard farms will result in a greater portion of feed demand from processed feeds. The attaché sees new crop soybean crush at 98.0 MMT, in line with USDA and up from this year’s 95.0 MMT (USDA 94.0 MMT). The attaché sees mostly steady/lower vegoil imports in 21/22 with palm oil imports estimated at 6.7 MMT (USDA officially 7.2 MMT), unchanged from this year’s 6.7 MMT, soybean oil imports at 1.2 MMT (USDA 1.175 MMT) vs 1.2 MMT old crop and rapeseed oil imports at 2.0 MMT, in line with USDA and unchanged from 2020/21. The only increase is expected for sunoil imports to 2.0 MMT (USDA 2.150 MMT) from this year’s 1.7
MMT.
 The USDA ag attaché in India sees this year’s soybean crop at 10.8 MMT, below USDA’s official 11.2 MMT estimate, but still up slightly from last year’s 10.45 MMT. Accordingly, soybean crush is expected to increase only marginally in 21/22 to 9.6 MMT (USDA 9.7 MMT) from this year’s 9.4 MMT. Tight feed supplies prompted the government to recently approve 1.2 MMT in GMO SBM imports, with the attaché expecting a total of 700k tonnes to be imported, split between the 20/21 and 21/22 marketing year, as the import window is limited to October 31, likely preventing the full 1.2 MMT being able to be imported by then.
 U.S. corn crop conditions declined 1% in good/excellent last week to 59%, while soybean conditions improved 1% to 57% g/e. Both remain near the bottom of overall conditions for early September over the last 8-9 years. See our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45072 for full details of yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress update.
ï‚· USDA reported routine sales of 102k tonnes of soybeans to China this morning for 2021/22 delivery.
 Grain loading activity at the Gulf is very slowly improving, with Louis Dreyfus’ operation near Baton Rouge back up and running and the Coast Guard reopening the lower Mississippi to barge navigation. However, the majority of other NOLA-area terminals remain out of commission due to ongoing power outages.
 The Argentine Ag Secretary estimates farmer sales of this year’s soybean crop reached 28.9 MMT, with nearly 500k tonnes sold in the latest week, bringing total sales to 66% of the expected crop vs last year’s 30.8 MMT in farmer sales at this point (63% of the crop). Farmer corn sales also increased 500k tonnes in the latest week to 39.2 MMT (78% of the crop) and remain 3 MMT ahead of last year’s sales of 36.2 MMT (75% of the crop).
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Oct 25-Nov 3 shipment. The lowest offer was Ukrainian at $343.15/tonne c&f ($310.25 fob), with a single cargo of Russian wheat the next lowest at $344.80 c&f ($317.00 fob). The next three lowest offers were all Ukrainian again.
ï‚· After months of farmer protests over various farm laws and the low state-mandated wheat purchase price, the Indian government raised the new crop wheat purchase price by only 2%, a level not even enough to cover increased cultivation costs.
ï‚· CHS announced they are expanding their soybean oil refining capacity at the Mankato, MN facility by more than 35%, with the project expected to be completed in late summer 2023.
ï‚· A South Korean feedmill passed on their tenders for 69k tonnes of corn, 65k tonnes feed wheat and 15k tonnes barley citing prices being too high. The lowest corn offer was $317.95/tonne c&f for Dec arrival, with feed wheat offered at $347.70/tonne c&f.