-More delays for RFS blending mandates
-Cattle on Feed report Friday
-Brazil July soybean/corn export ideas ticked higher
-Russian wheat yields improving
Friday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of July 1 cattle on feed is 99.0% of last year (96.8-102.0 range of ideas) at 11.324 million head and compares to June 1 of 100.2. June placements are estimated at 95.9 (90.4-105.0 range) with 1.724 million head and follows May’s 93.1, while June marketings are estimated at 102.1 (99.4-
105.0 range) with 2.010 million head vs May’s 123.4.
While an official statement has not been issued, there are reports the White House is delaying the process to set the 2021 and 2022 RFS blending mandates as it takes up the topic in an attempt to find a compromise between ag and energy-related sides of the debate. The long-delayed proposal for 2021 mandates was expected by many by the end of June, which would still need to go through OMB review process before being finalized. In separate actions, a group of four lawmakers introduced a bill to eliminate the conventional biofuel (corn-based ethanol) portion of blending mandates in the RFS completely to re-focus the program on advanced and cellulosic biofuels, but, given the political implications, is unlikely to survive.
Brazilian ag exporter association Anec raised their estimate of the country’s July soybean exports to 9.437 MMT from 8.955 MMT previously, while also bumping estimated corn exports up to 3.195 MMT from 3.035 MMT previously.
The Argentine Ag Secretary estimates farmers sold 660k tonnes of soybeans in the latest week, down a bit from recent-week
sales of 788-831k tonnes, bringing total sales to 25.1 MMT vs 27.2 MMT sold by this time last year. Roughly 900k tonnes of corn was sold by farmers over the last week, bringing total sales to 33.6 MMT vs 30.9 MMT a year ago.
After seeing very limited interest in the last three weekly state corn reserve auctions, in which 150-200k tonnes was offered, but less than 30k tonnes actually purchased, China reduced the amount of corn to be offered at this week’s auction to only 23k tonnes, all Ukrainian with no imported U.S. corn offered this time around.
With around 23% of the wheat crop harvested, Russia’s latest update shows yields so far nearly identical to those of last year, an improvement from earlier harvest progress updates which showed yields running roughly 3% below year ago levels. The USDA’s current nationwide yield expectation is for a 1.7% decline from last year.
Thailand passed on their tender for 138k tonnes of feed wheat for Oct-Dec shipment periods with the lowest offers being
$308/tonne c&f for Oct shipment.