-NOPA crush data tomorrow – ideas support lower annual crush vs USDA
-Egypt tenders for wheat
-Brazil soybean/corn July export ideas raised
-China confirms higher wheat crop ideas
 NOPA will release their monthly crush data tomorrow at 111:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate of June soybean crush by NOPA members is 159.5 million bushels (155.5-163.0 million range of ideas) vs 163.5 million in May and 167.3 million bushels last year, reflecting an expected 4.7% rationing for the month year-over-year, exactly the same as the average decline from last year over the previous four months. The average estimate implies nationwide crush for the month of 169.1 million bushels based on the recent relationship between NOPA and U.S.-total crush and would put 2020/21 marketing year to date crush at 1.813 billion bushels vs last year’s 1.805 billion. More importantly, if accurate, July-August crush would need to total 357 million bushels in order for the USDA’s new 2.170 billion bushel annual crush estimate to prove valid, essentially unchanged from last year’s final two-month crush of 359 million bushels, which was record high and in contrast to the nearly 5% average monthly decline from last year in recent months. While USDA did lower their crush estimate by 5 million bushels in Monday’s WASDE report, it looks likely to need another roughly 10 million bushel reduction when all is said and done. The average estimate of end June NOPA soybean oil stocks is 1.623 billion pounds (1.520-1.752 billion range), down from 1.671 billion in May, a 7-month low and solidly below last year’s 1.778 billion, but still above 2019’s
June stocks of 1.536 billion. Using the average estimate as a proxy, nationwide June SBO stocks would be implied at around 2.086 billion pounds vs 2.147 billion in May and 2.271 billion last year.
 Brazilian ag exporter association Anec raised their estimate of July soybean exports to 8.955 MMT vs previous ideas of 7.639 MMT and compares to 11.1 MMT exported in June and 10.0 MMT last year July. Based on the new estimate, Feb-July marketing year to date exports would be 70.0 MMT vs 67.3 MMT last year. Anec also raised estimated July corn exports to 3.035 MMT from 2.377 MMT previously and compares to 4.0 MMT last year and only 128k tonnes in June as the export program begins to gear up, albeit at expected reduced levels from last year following this year’s crop issues.
 The Argentine Ag Secretary reported another solid week in farmer sales of this year’s soybean crop with 831k tonnes sold over the last week, bringing total sales so far to 24.5 MMT vs 26.9 MMT last year, although current sales reflect 56% of the total crop vs 55% last year. Corn sales have reached 32.7 MMT vs 30.4 MMT at this time last year, 67% of the expected crop vs 60% last year.
ï‚· China reported its winter wheat crop, which accounts for nearly all annual production, was up 2% from last year at 134 MMT, with total summer-harvested grain production of 145.8 MMT rising 2.1% from last year. Winter wheat area was up 1% from last year, the first increase in six years.
 Germany’s association of farmer cooperatives bumped their estimate of the country’s wheat crop down to 22.80 MMT from 22.98 MMT previously, but remains up from last year’s 22.1 MMT, while ideas on the winter rapeseed crop were maintained at 3.68 MMT vs 3.52 MMT last year.
ï‚· Brazil raised the biodiesel blending mandate back up to 12% from 10%, which was lowered from 13% in early April.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Sept 11-20 shipment. The five lowest offers were all Romanian ranging from $262.19-$272.30/tonne c&f ($231.88-$237.30 fob), while the lowest Ukrainian offer was $236.75 fob and lowest Russian $238.55.