-China remains active US soybean buyer as new crop purchases better than recent years
-No USDA sales announcements
-EPA considering supplemental RVO
-Weak wheat prices spur buying interest
-US rain forecast encouraging
-Ukraine suspends grain export data reporting
Forecasts holding for better rains through mid-week next week, along with active winter wheat harvest amid good yield ideas, weighed on grain markets overnight. This morning’s EIA report is expected to show another uptick in ethanol production.
 There are ideas China bought another 4 cargoes of U.S. soybeans overnight for Nov-Dec shipment as their methodical buying pattern of several cargoes/day continues. Last week’s Export Sales report reflected 2.0 MMT in new crop sales officially on the books to China through June 4. Since then, additional buying likely increased their total new crop purchases to around 3.5-4.0 MMT. Without a doubt, the recent increase in soybean sales to China is encouraging as new crop sales at the same time last year were less than 200k tonnes and were only 1.1-1.5 MMT in the previous two years. In fact, estimated new crop sales as of mid-June are the highest in 6 years. However, they still pale in comparison historically when China regularly bought large quantities of U.S. soybeans much earlier with 9.6 MMT and 9.8 MMT of new crop sales already on the books in mid-June in 2012 and 2013, respectively, and 6.1 MMT in 2014.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Ukraine has suspended publishing grain export data for the 2019/20 marketing year, which hasn’t been updated since June 5. According to an economy ministry official, remaining anonymous, publishing the data was halted as it might affect the market situation.
 The EPA is reportedly expected to propose a supplemental increase in the 2021 and 2022 biofuel Renewable Volume Obligations as a result of a court’s ruling in 2017 that the agency’s reductions in the 2014-2016 blending mandates below RFS levels were not appropriate. At the time, the EPA allowed lower blending levels than the RFS stipulated due to “blending wall†limitations, but a court subsequently ruled that consideration was in error. The expected proposal would leave annual blending targets in place as currently in the RFS, but issue a “supplemental RVO†for an additional 250 million gallons in 2021, followed by another 250 million gallon increase for 2022. A 250 mil gal increase in ethanol blending would add roughly 85 million bushels to annual corn demand. The unknown in this situation, though, is whether the increased RVO would simply result in a greater number of outstanding RINs being used rather than an increase in actual ethanol production/blending.
 In separate measures, the EPA is still considering whether to grant retroactive refinery waivers to petitions filed by a number of refineries after the court ruling earlier this year that a large amount of the waivers granted since 2010 did not meet legal guidelines as they were not issued as “extensions,†but rather as new waivers. The EPA is reportedly looking at issuing retroactive blending waivers, which could technically fall under the “extension†guidelines.
 Germany’s association of farmer cooperatives slightly lower their estimate of the country’s wheat crop to 22.2 MMT form 22.4 MMT previously and is down modestly from last year’s 23.1 MMT. The see the rapeseed crop at 3.20 MMT (3.24 MMT previously), up solidly from last year’s 2.83 MMT.
ï‚· The renewed weakness in the wheat market has spurred an increase in global buying interest with Thailand tendering for 235k tonnes of feed wheat for Aug-Oct shipment, Ethiopia tendering for 400k tonnes of wheat (re-issue of previously canceled tender) and Tunisia tendering for 176k tonnes of milling wheat for July-Sept shipment periods.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of Brazilian corn for October shipment at 141.77 cents +CZ (~$190.75/tonne c&f).
Weather
Rains are expected to develop starting in the northwest belt tomorrow/Friday and move east over the weekend. The models differ on totals with this activity with the GFS seeing 1-2†in central MN and the SW ½ of IA, with totals of .75-1.5†in the rest of the belt, while the European sees totals of .50-1.5â€+ to fall in areas to the NW of a line from Kansas City to Peoria to Traverse City MI, with totals of generally less than .50†elsewhere. Models for the 6-10 day period are in better agreement with a widespread rain event expected late Sunday through Wednesday resulting in totals of .75-1.5†and coverage of around 80 percent of the belt with no bias in locations. The 11-16 day period shows weak ridging to dominate most of the pattern across the central US, producing below average precip in most of the Midwest, with temps above average in the west and average to a bit below in the east.