-Corn belt rain prospects remain good
-Black Sea wheat export ideas up vs last year
-China to auction small quantity of imported corn
-USDA announces modest new crop corn sale
-Egypt alters wheat tender terms following recent canceled tender
Near-term rain prospects remain positive with the GFS showing widespread 1-2†potential across IA, IL, WI, IN and OH by the end of Monday, with activity getting underway on Friday. Additional widespread, solid rains remain the 6-15 day outlook period, as well. Corn and wheat appear to be attempting a modest bounce following the recent notable setback, while soybeans, led by soybean oil, was under modest pressure again overnight. Malaysian palm oil was down nearly 4% in overnight action, with benchmark September futures down 19% from highs on June 3.
 According to a Reuters poll of various ag agencies, industry participants and private forecasters, the average expectation for the Russian wheat crop is 81.3 MMT (78.5-86.0 MMT range of ideas), down from last year’s 86.2 MMT, but the same poll indicated expectations for this year’s Russian wheat exports at 38.1 MMT (32.5-41.0 MMT range), which would be essentially unchanged from last year. The USDA is currently estimating the Russian crop at 86.0 MMT, up marginally from their refection of last year’s crop of 85.4 MMT, with exports estimated at 40.0 MMT vs 38.5 MMT last year. USDA does not include the Crimean Peninsula in Russia’s crop ideas, which Russia annexed in 2014, while most Russian region-based estimates do, accounting for roughly 600k tonnes of production. The poll showed an average expectation for Ukraine’s wheat crop at 28.8 MMT (27.3-30.2 MMT range) vs 24.9 MMT last year (USDA 29.5 MMT/25.4 MMT last year) with exports rising to 20.1 MMT (17.0-21.5 MMT range) from 17.1 MMT last year (USDA 20.5 MMT/17.5 MMT last year). Kazakhstan’s wheat crop is estimated at 13.6 MMT vs 14.3 MMT last year, with exports steady year-over-year at 7.6 MMT.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 153k tonnes of new crop, 2021/22, corn to unknown this morning.
 China announced a largely symbolic auctioning of 37k tonnes of imported Ukrainian corn on June 18, the 2nd auction of imported supplies of late following 11k tonnes of Ukrainian corn on June 11. While the volumes are extremely small and of little impact from a true supply/price perspective, the auctions are symbolically important as a signal to the market the government is willing to make unconventional moves to keep domestic prices under control, as China’s traditional state-reserve auctions are of domestic supplies, not imported supplies.
 The Chinese government urged the country’s pig farmers to continue producing at reasonable levels despite the ongoing plunge in domestic prices, which have seen live hog values decline by 60% since the start of the year. Live hog prices are now widely below breakeven levels, prompting panic selling by producers. Accordingly, there is rising concern there will be a shortfall of pork in the 2nd half of the year given the reduced inventories now.
ï‚· China reported its pig herd was up 23.5% from year ago levels at the end of May, while the sow herd was up 19.3% year-over-year and reflected 98.4% of end of 2017 levels.
ï‚· Despite heavy offers of wheat in their recent tender, Egypt canceled the latest tender given high freight costs and lack of availability as only 3 vessels were offered by freight suppliers despite nearly 1.2 MMT in total offers of wheat being made. Subsequently, Egypt revised the terms of their tenders to allow exporters to directly offer freight with their bids vs freight being offered separately by ship operators previously.
ï‚· South Korea bought 60k tonnes of South American corn at $315.00/tonne c&f for Aug 1-20 shipment.
Weather
The GFS remains optimistic on rain opportunities across much of the belt starting late-week, while the European remains much less optimistic on near-term prospects, as well as the 6-10 day period, as well.