-USDA announces corn cancellation by China
-Brazil forecast remains dry
-U.S. March ethanol exports to China near record high
-Argentine wheat crop expected near record high
-India wheat crop ideas trimmed
-CME permanently closes grain pits
The forecast for Brazilian safrinha corn areas remains dry through the 15-day period.
The CME officially announced they are permanently closing grain open-outcry trading pits, deciding not to re-open them following the closure in March due to COVID. The Eurodollar options pit, which was re-opened in August, will remain open.
USDA announced the cancellation of 140k tonnes of old crop, 2020/21, corn previously sold to China this morning. Several new sales were announced, though, of 147k tonnes to unknown (46k old crop/102k new crop) and 184k tonnes to Mexico for new crop 2021/22.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on May 10. The average estimate of end April Malaysian palm oil stocks is 1.442 MMT (1.402-1.596 MMT range of ideas), which would be virtually unchanged from March stocks of 1.446 MMT, but well below year ago April stocks of 2.044 MMT. April palm oil production is estimated at a 6-month high of 1.550 MMT (1.490-1.566 MMT range) vs 1.423 MMT in March and 1.653 MMT last year, while April exports are estimated at 1.300 MMT (1.280-1.370 MMT range) vs 1.182 MMT in March and 1.236 MMT last year.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange sees the 2021/22 Argentine wheat crop at 19.0 MMT, up from assessment of last year’s 17.0 MMT and matching their estimate of the 2018/19 current record. Planting of the new crop will get underway within the coming weeks. For the record, USDA currently has last year’s crop at 17.6 MMT and the record at 19.8 MMT.
Brazilian ag exporter association Anec sees May soybean exports at 12.0 MMT, down from April’s record exports of 17.4 MMT and below last year’s 14.1 MMT. They expect virtually no corn exports for the month, which is not uncommon as last year’s May exports were only 24k tonnes. Separately, AgRural sees Brazil’s May soybean exports being 14-15 MMT.
Census Bureau official March trade data was released yesterday, with nothing out of the ordinary being seen in corn, soybean/product and wheat exports. However, ethanol exports in March of 133.0 million gallons were up solidly from 101.7 million in February and were the 2nd highest of the last 12 months. Of interest, ethanol exports to China surged to 48.3 million gallons from 4.8 million in Feb, (22.7 mil Jan, 12.5 mil Dec) and were the 2nd highest monthly exports to China on record, falling just short of the 48.34 million gallon record in April 2016. For the 1st quarter of CY 2021, U.S. total ethanol exports of 399 million gallons were down from last year’s 485 million gallons, and included 76 million gallons to China vs virtually none during the quarter last year.
The USDA ag attaché in India sees this year’s wheat crop at 105.0 MMT, slightly below last year’s record crop of 107.9 MMT and down a bit from the attaché’s earlier ideas of 107.0 MMT. With harvest underway, they cited lower than expected yields in some areas following the fast maturation of the crop given high late-season temperatures. We would note, earlier in the growing season, private ideas in India indicated the potential for a bin-busting crop in excess of 120 MMT and a potential return to being a modest net exporter of wheat.
The ongoing dryness in southern Brazil continues to detrimentally impact Parana River water levels, forcing ships to reduce loadings by 5.5k-7k tonnes from normal levels. With virtually no rain in the forecast for the next two weeks, the situation is likely to worsen moving forward.
The Philippines bought 60k tonnes of wheat, expected to be Australian, at $315-$320/tonne c&f for June-July shipment. Taiwan tendered for 89k tonnes of U.S. wheat for July shipment.
May soybean deliveries were 31 (LTD 4/23/21), with LDC stopping 22. Soybean oil deliveries of 205 contracts were put out by Cargill, but CHS stopped 103, Bunge 62 and LDC 26.
NOTE: We have added weather model-estimated precip summary tables to our daily comments. The tables summarize the GFS and European model’s estimated precip by region and by period, along with the change in estimated precip from the forecast 24 hours prior. The U.S. table below compiles estimated state-average precip forecasts into regional averages: WCB (NE, MN, IA, MO), ECB (IL, IN, OH, WI), S. Plains (KS, OK, TX), N. Plains (ND, SD).
On the following page, tables including precip estimates by state, as well as Brazilian safrinha corn areas and Ukraine production areas are also available. Precip activity over the last 24 hours in the corn belt included .50-1.50” with rains extending from the southern half of MO, through the southern half of IL and most of IN and OH. The Central/Southern Plains saw .25”-1.0” with 10% coverage in far eastern KS and OK.