-Attache sees lower Argentine soybean crop than USDA
-China issues feed revision guidelines reducing corn/SBM usage
-Brazilian corn crop ideas shifting lower
-Trade estimates for Stats Can planting intentions report
-Cattle on Feed report Friday
 The USDA ag attaché in Argentina sees this year’s soybean crop at 45.0 MMT, solidly below the USDA’s official 47.5 MMT
estimate and down from last year’s 48.8 MMT. However, due to higher beginning stocks ideas of 13.2 MMT vs USDA’s 11.8 MMT, the attaché still sees this year’s crush at 41.5 MMT vs USDA’s 41.0 MMT estimate and up from last year’s 37.6 MMT. The attaché mentioned achieving crush at that level will only be possible if farmers are willing to sell their crop rather than being tight holders as many expect amid the economic uncertainty. However, to help prompt farmer sales, the government has reportedly made a condition of not holding significant quantities of stocks in order to receive subsidized loan rates. The attaché sees this year’s soybean exports at only 5.5 MMT vs USDA’s 6.85 MMT estimate and down from last year’s 6.65 MMT, resulting in ending stocks ideas of 10.7 MMT vs USDA’s 8.8 MMT and last year’s 13.2 MMT. Early ideas on next year’s crop show a minor increase in area, but rebound in yields for a crop of 51.5 MMT, crush of 42.0 MMT and exports of 6.5 MMT.
 China’s ag ministry issued recommended guidelines for livestock producers to reduce the amount of corn and soybean meal in feed rations, providing ideas on potential switches to cheaper feed ingredients. For example, they said pig producers in the northeast could reduce corn inclusion by at least 15% and replace with a combination of rice and rice bran, while cutting SBM by 10% and replacing with DDGS, corn protein powder and amino acids. Other regional recommendations showed the full elimination of corn, with replacement by a combination of rice, wheat, barley, sorghum and various grain meal/flour products, while SBM inclusion could be cut to zero in finisher pig rations replaced by other meals. The potential impact on these recommendations is impossible to gauge as they are only guidelines, not directives/mandates, but clearly the initiative to slow SBM/corn usage is heating up. Some “back of the envelope†ideas indicate the complete following of the ministry’s guidelines could reduce corn feed usage by 40-50 MMT annually and SBM usage by 4-8 MMT annually.
 A wire service survey of Brazilian ag industry participants indicated average ideas of the Brazilian corn crop at 107.3 MMT, down from the previous survey’s 108.2 MMT, but still reflecting an increase from last year’s 102.6 MMT (CONAB) and a new record. The lowest estimate from AgRural was 103.4 MMT.
ï‚· Next Tuesday, Statistics Canada will release their planting intentions report. The average estimate of all wheat area is 23.7
million acres (22.5-24.7 million range), reflecting a decline from last year’s 24.98 MMT, with durum area estimated at 5.5 mil
acres (4.4-5.9 mil range) vs 5.69 mil last year. Canola area is estimated at 22.6 million acres (21.8-23.4 mil range) vs 20.78
million last year, with oats estimated at 3.6 million (2.9-3.8 mil range) vs 3.84 million last year. Barley area is estimated at 8.0
million acres (6.8-8.8 mil range) vs 7.56 mil last year
 Friday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. This month’s report comparisons to last year will be
impacted by the significant COVID-impacted numbers a year ago. The average estimate of April 1 cattle on feed is 106.1% of
last year (105.0-107.5 range of ideas) with 11.986 million head. While up notably from last year, we would note the average
estimate is comparable to April 1 on feed from 2019 of 11.953 mil head. March placements are estimated at 133.7 (128.0-143.4 range), again due to the major decline last year but at 2.082 mil head would be comparable to 2019’s 2.014 million. March marketings are estimated at 101.1 (100.5-101.6 range) with 2.032 mil head.
ï‚· Brazilian ag exporter association Anec revised April soybean export ideas to 16.7 MMT from 17.2 MMT previously, still a new
monthly record in exceeding last year’s April exports of 14.9 MMT and compares to 13.5 MMT in March.
Weather
Precip activity over the last 24 hours included .10-.60†of roughly 30% of the corn belt, (MO, S. ¾ IL, all of IN/OH), while the
central/southern plains saw less than .20†with 15% coverage. The coming 5-day period is expected to bring .50-1.25†amounts and 30% corn belt coverage, with the 6-10 day and 11-15 day periods looking a bit wetter. Winter wheat areas show .25-.75†rains with 20% coverage in the 5-day outlook.