-Record Brazilian soybean exports expected for April
-Ethanol production expected down again in today’s EIA data
-Ukraine ready to ban wheat exports if needed
-India to exempt ag workers from lockdown measures
-NOPA March soybean crush expected to be record large
-US temperature outlook remains cold
Today’s EIA ethanol data is expected to show additional production declines with the year-over-year drop in production for the week possibly/likely around 40%, continuing the trend after last week was down 33% from last year and down 16% the week prior.
 Brazilian grain exporting association ANEC sees the country shipping an all-time monthly record 14.5 MMT of soybeans in April and would compare to last year’s April exports of 9.4 MMT and 11.6 MMT exported in March. The current monthly record for soybean exports is 12.4 MMT in May 2018.
 A Ukrainian official said they are ready to ban wheat exports if/when total shipments reach the previously-agreed upon 20 MMT cap, with roughly 18 MMT already being exported, leaving around 2 MMT available for export through the end of the marketing year on June 30. He said the pace of exports of late does not imply exports would exceed 2 MMT through the end of June. Separately, but relatedly, ag consultant APKInform now sees Ukrainian wheat exports at 19.5 MMT, a 2.6% increase from their previous estimate. Looking forward to 2020/21, the official said they are anticipating a notable decline in wheat exports, potentially to 12-15 MMT given the expected decline in production as planted area was down and weather has been unfavorable. Total grain production in 2020/21 is currently expected to be 65-67 MMT vs last year’s record 75.1 MMT, but with risks down to 60 MMT if weather conditions are poor.
 Chinese soybean futures on the Dalian exchange were sharply higher overnight, up as much as 4.6% at the day’s high and the highest level since August 2017 on near-term tight domestic supply concerns. However, the previous backlog of shipments from Brazil is beginning to arrive at China’s southern ports, allowing shuttered crushing plants to reopen. After hitting historically low levels, soybean stocks at some Chinese ports/key crushing locations are rebounding quickly, but the list of unfilled soybean meal orders is said to be long and could keep soybean meal supplies on the limited side until things are caught up. Obviously the massive Brazilian exports in March and April will eventually change the complexion of the situation.
ï‚· France raised their estimate of 2019/20 (July-June) wheat exports outside the EU for the 7th consecutive month to 13.2 MMT from 12.7 MMT the previous month and compares to 9.7 MMT last year. Intra-EU exports were lowered to 7.7 MMT from 8.1 MMT previously (7.4 MMT last year).
 India will exempt agricultural workers from the country’s lockdown measures after a full review of the situation and a plan is established next week. The country’s record wheat crop is nearing harvest so this will hopefully reduce crop loss risks expressed of late.
 NOPA’s monthly soybean crush data will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of March NOPA crush is 175.2 million bushels (165.0-179.6 million range of ideas) and compares to 170.0 million last year March and 166.3 million in February. Anything above 2018’s 171.9 million bushels would reflect a new record for March. The average estimate of end March soybean oil stocks among NOPA members is 2.067 billion pounds (1.966-2.142 billion range) and would be up solidly from Feb’s 1.922 billion and last year’s 1.761 billion. In fact, any level of stocks above 2.023 billion pounds would reflect the highest March NOPA SBO stocks since 2013.
Weather
A few light snow showers fell in S IA as well as into WI, MI and N. IL. Most totals were in the 1-3†range. Things will remain fairly quiet in all of
the region through most of Thursday and then by late Thursday into Friday, a weak system will bring a couple of inches of snow to southern IA,
far northern MO, northern IL, IN and OH, with rains of .30-.80â€+ in the rest of MO, IL, IN and OH. Models are in better agreement for the 6-10
day period with mostly quiet conditions expected through the weekend and early next week, with a system to bring rains of .50-1â€+ to all but MN,
WI and the northern ½ to 2/3 of IA. Temps will run below average for most of the next week to ten days, with one more round of freezing temps
in much of the region tomorrow and then sub-freezing temps look to be confined to the far northern Midwest in the next 10 days.
The next system for the southern plains will bring rains to the eastern 1/3 of KS, OK and TX later tomorrow and Friday. Totals with that system
look to be in the .40-1†range in the eastern 1/3 of KS and OH, with .10-.50†in the rest of KS. Some of the precip could fall as a bit of wet snows
in N KS. The 6-10 day still has some mixed ideas from the models, although the general trend calls for rains of .40-1†to fall in the eastern ½ of KS
into eastern OK and eastern TX, with totals generally less than .50†elsewhere.