-Wheat sales much larger than expected
-Old crop corn/soybean sales modest – new crop sales solid corn, as expected soybeans
-SBM sales remain impressive, SBO modest
U.S. corn old crop export sales, for the week ended 8/09/18, were modest at 339k tonnes (13.3 million bushels), which were at the lower end of market expectations of 300-600k tonnes, but with total commitments of 2.372 billion bushels already enough to likely see 2017/18 exports surpass the USDA’s 2.400 billion bushel export projection, when taking into account the difference between official Census Bureau export data and that reported in the Export Sales data, any old crop sales are positive sales at this point. We continue to feel the USDA’s old crop export estimate will eventually need a 40-50 million bushel increase. New crop sales of 1.045 MMT (41.1 million bushels) were just above market expectations of 300k-1.0 MMT and brought 2018/19 total commitments to 349 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 226 million.
U.S. soybean old crop sales last week of 133k tonnes (4.9 million bushels) were at the bottom end of market expectations of 100-400k tonnes, as well, but unlike corn, as a result of the USDA’s recently-raised export projection of 2.110 billion bushels, 2017/18 soybean sales still may need to average 5-7 million bushels/week over the three weeks of the marketing year when net cancellations are not that uncommon at all. However, this year is obviously not a typical situation as non-Chinese buyers continue to show interest in U.S. soybeans very late in the marketing year due to the favorable price difference between U.S. and Brazilian supplies. Total commitments of 2.156 billion bushels are still down 4.0% from last year, while the USDA’s export estimate reflects expectations for a 2.6% decline on the year. New crop sales of 572k tonnes (21.0 million bushels) were within market expectations of 300-700k tonnes and brought 2018/19 total commitments to 422 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 291 million. The largest new crop sales last week went to unknown with 373k tonnes, followed by Mexico with 102k tonnes.
U.S. wheat sales were the star of the week at an impressive 803k tonnes (29.5 million bushels), solidly beating market expectations of 200-500k tonnes, and were easily the best of the first 10 weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year. Impressively, this week’s wheat sales were the largest single-week sales since January 2017. The largest sales of the week went to Mexico with 248k tonnes, followed by Nigeria 140k and the Philippines with 118k. The increase in sales certainly is nice to see, but will need to continue moving forward following the USDA raising the 2018/19 export projection to 1.025 billion bushels. Total commitments of 306 million bushels are still down nearly 26% from last year, while the USDA is projecting a 14% increase in exports this year, which will require wheat sales to average roughly 17 million bushels/week over the rest of the marketing year vs last year’s average weekly sales from this point forward of just 11.0 million bushels.
Soybean meal sales continue to roll along in impressive fashion with old crop sales of 207k tonnes beating market expectations of 40-200k tonnes, as did new crop sales of 147k tonnes (25-100k tonnes expected). Old crop SBM sales averaged 141k tonnes over the last four weeks vs last year’s 44k tonnes/week during the same period. Sales will need to average roughly 42k tonnes/week over the final 7 weeks of 2017/18 to allow exports to reach the USDA’s just-raised 14.1 million ton export projection. New crop total commitments of 846k tonnes, though, remain behind last year’s 1.256 MMT at this time. Soybean oil sales were uneventful with old crop at 4.8k tonnes (5-24k expected), while new crop sales were minimal at 0.3k tonnes. Old crop SBO sales, though, only need to average roughly 5k tonnes/week through the end of the marketing year to allow the USDA’s 2.450 billion pound export projection to be met.
