-Soybean sales significantly lower than expected
-Corn sales at bottom of expectations
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM sales at bottom of expectations, SBO sales beat muted expectations
NOTE: Next week’s Export Sales report will be released on Thursday, 12/31/20, as usual.
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 12/17/20, were a marketing year low at only 353k tonnes (13.0 million bushels), coming in well below market expectations of 550-800k tonnes and were down from the previous week’s 33.0 million bushels and last year’s same-week sales of 24.3 million. New net sales to China for the week were only 137k tonnes, but again there were 396k tonnes in previously-reported “unknown” sales switched to China, bringing their 2020/21 total commitments to 31.8 MMT vs 10.9 MMT at this time last year. Sales on the books to unknown are now down to 6.5 MMT, but remain solidly above last year’s 3.0 MMT in mid-December. Total commitments of 1.990 billion bushels remain up 86% from last year’s 1.069 billion, leaving sales needing to average roughly 6.3 million bushels/week through the end of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 18.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales of 651k tonnes (25.6 mil bu) were at the bottom of market expectations of 600k-1.0 MMT, were down notably from sales over the previous four weeks of 53.6-83.6 million bushels and were the 2nd lowest of the first 16 weeks of 2020/21 so far. The largest reported sales of the week were 101k tonnes to Guatemala, but sales to unknown were at least 261k tonnes. China was a minor buyer of 12k tonnes. Total commitments of 1.663 billion bushels remain more than double last year’s 702 million at this time, leaving sales needing to average roughly 26.1 million bushels/week through next August to reach the USDA’s 2.650 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 29.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales of 394k tonnes (14.5 mil bu) were within market expectations of 300-500k tonnes, but were down from the previous week’s 19.8 mil bu, were well below last year’s same-week sales of 26.3 mil bu and were the lowest in five weeks. This week’s activity included minimal Chinese purchases of 3k tonnes, while the largest sales went to Nigeria with 102k tonnes. Total commitments of 736 million bushels are still up 8% from last year’s 681 million, but slipping, with sales needing to average roughly 11.4 million bushels/week through the end of next May to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection vs last year’s 13.4 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales were 224k tonnes, at the bottom of market expectations of 200-350k tonnes, but well above last year’s same-week sales of 138k tonnes and continue to run solidly above the roughly 159k tonnes/week “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s export projection. Through the first 12 weeks of 2020/21, SBM sales have averaged 213k tonnes/week, with only three weeks’ sales falling below the current needed pace so far. Total commitments are up nearly 6% from last year vs USDA estimating this year’s exports nearly unchanged year over year. Soybean oil sales were decent at 20.9k tonnes, the best in four weeks, after three weeks of very limited sales, beating market expectations of 5-15k tonnes and keeping pace with the roughly 19.4k tonnes/week in “needed” sales to reach the USDA’s export projection. SBO sales have averaged 21.2k tonnes/week through 12 weeks of 20/21 so far vs 19.4k/week during the same period last year. Total commitments are essentially unchanged from last year, while USDA is projecting SBO exports down 3% at this time.
