-Soybean sales at very top end of expectations
-Corn sales solid – within expectations
-Wheat sales near upper end of expectations
-SBM sales within expectations, SBO sales at bottom of expectations
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 10/01/20, were very strong again at 2.591 MMT (95.2 million bushels), matching the previous week’s sales and were again above last year’s same-week sales of 76.9 million bushels. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of 1.1 MMT (449k tonnes also switched from unknown to China), putting their 2020/21 total commitments at 22.1 MMT vs 4.8 MMT at this time last year. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.496 billion bushels compares to 597 million at this time last year and easily remain record high for early October. Based on the USDA’s 2.125 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 14.1 million bushels/week through the end of next August vs last year’s late season-heavy 24.1 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales last week of 1.226 MMT (48.3 million bushels) were within market expectations of 700k-1.5 MMT, but were down considerably from the previous week’s 79.8 million bushels and were easily the lowest of the first five weeks of 2020/21, which had seen weekly sales range from 63.4-84.2 mil bu so far. This week’s activity for China included the purchase of a mere 19k tonnes, with their total purchases for 2020/21 holding at 10.0 MMT vs only 59k tonnes last year. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.018 billion bushels dwarf last year’s 394 million bushels as of early October and remain record high for the week. We estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 26.9 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 29.0 million/week average from this point forward.
Wheat sales last week of 531k tonnes (19.5 mil bu) were towards the upper end of market expectations of 250-600k tonnes and were in line with the previous week’s 18.6 million and last year’s 19.1 million. Overall, wheat sales continue at a very consistent pace, averaging 18.0 million bushels/week over the last 8 weeks. Total commitments of 534 million bushels are up 8% from last year’s 493 million and continue to run above the USDA’s 975 million bushel annual export projection, reflecting an estimated 1% increase for the year. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 3.5 million bushels/week through the end of May to reach the USDA’s export target vs last year’s 14.6 million/week average from this point forward.
Soybean meal sales, for the week kicking off the 2020/21 marketing year, were 272k tonnes, in line with market expectations of 150-500k tonnes and put total commitments at 3.467 MMT, which is almost identical to year ago sales at the beginning of 2019/20 of 3.463 MMT. We estimate SBM sales will need to average roughly 161k tonnes/week over the entire marketing year to reach the USDA’s 13.5 million ton export projection vs last year’s 170k tonne/week average. Soybean oil sales were disappointing at 4.6k tonnes with expectations of 0-30k. To start 2020/21, total commitments of 177k tonnes compare to 196k a year ago. Soybean oil sales will need to average roughly 19k tonnes/week this year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.600 billion pound export projection vs last year’s 21.8k tonne/week average.
