-Soybean sales just above range of expectations
-Corn sales better than expected
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM sales as expected/SBO sales at bottom of expectations
NOTE: USDA will release next week’s Export Sales report Wednesday morning as federal agencies will be closed 12/24-12/25 for Christmas.
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 12/10/20, were 922k tonnes (33.9 million bushels), just above the range of market ideas of 400-900k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 20.9 million bushels and were the largest in four weeks. The largest sales for the week went to Mexico with 225k tonnes, with China being a net buyer of 136k tonnes for the week, but this week’s data reflected the switching of 791k tonnes in previously-reported “unknown” sales to China, bringing China’s officially-reported purchases to 31.3 MMT so far vs 10.5 MMT at this time last year. Total outstanding sales to unknown still stand at 7.3 MMT vs 3.3 MMT last year. Total commitments of 1.978 billion bushels easily remain record high and up a massive 89% from last year’s 1.044 billion bushels, leaving sales needing to average roughly 6.5 million bushels/week for the rest of 2020/21 to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 19.0 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales last week were strong at 1.925 MMT (75.8 mil bu), above market expectations of 800k-1.6 MMT, up from the previous two weeks’ sales of 53.6 and 54.0 mil bu and were the 2nd highest of the last six weeks. The largest sales this week went to Mexico with 718k tonnes, bringing their total purchases to 8.9 MMT vs 7.4 MMT last year at this time, with China buying 162k tonnes for the week with 11.3 MMT now on the books vs 60k tonnes a year ago. Total commitments of 1.637 billion bushels remain more than double last year’s 677 million at this time, leaving sales needing to average roughly 26.1 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.650 billion bushel export projection vs 29.1 million/week average from this point forward last year.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 540k tonnes (19.9 mil bu) were in line with market expectations of 250-650k tonnes and comparable to sales over the last three weeks of 16.4-29.2 million bushels, but were below last year’s marketing year high sales this week of 31.9 million bushels. There were 68k tonnes in new sales to China for the week (65k HRS, 3k HRW), ticking their total U.S. wheat purchases up to 2.1 MMT vs 200k tonnes a year ago. Total commitments of 722 million bushels remain up 10% from last year’s 655 million, continuing to run ahead of the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection reflecting an estimated 2% increase from last year, leaving sales needing to average roughly 11.6 million bushels/week through the end of May vs 14.0 million/week average last year.
U.S. soybean meal sales were solid at 261k tonnes, a six-week high and towards the upper end of market expectations of 150-350k tonnes. Total commitments are now up 4% from last year at 5.526 MMT, requiring sales to average roughly 160k tonnes/week over the remainder to the marketing year to reach the USDA’s export projection, right in line with last year’s 162k/week average from this point forward. U.S. soybean oil sales were sluggish again last week at only 7.6k tonnes, at the bottom of expectations of 5-30k tonnes and continuing the hit or miss nature of sales this year. The last three weeks’ sales have been only 2.5-8.3k tonnes/week, while the prior three weeks saw sales of 26.3-88.0k tonnes/week. Total commitments are holding onto a minor 4% year-over-year gain for the time being, leaving sales needing to average roughly 19.4k tonnes/week to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 21.9k/week average from this point forward.
