-Soybean sales within reduced market expectations
-Corn sales within expectations
-Wheat sales above expectations
-SBM/SBO sales towards lower end of expectations
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 12/03/20, were 569k tonnes (20.9 million bushels), which were within market expectations of 400-800k tonnes, but certainly continuing to reflect the slowing of sales activity in recent weeks. After the extremely strong start to this year’s sales program, in which sales averaged 85.2 million bushels/week over the first 10 weeks of 2020/21 vs 50.9 mil bu/week last year, sales over the last four weeks slowed to 27.6 mil bu/week on average, which have been well below last year’s 44.6 mil bu/week average during the same period. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of only 233k tonnes (459k tonnes previously announced as unknown were switched to China), with their total commitments now at 30.4 MMT vs 9.8 MMT last year. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.944 billion bushels compare to 992 million last year, leaving sales needing to average only about 7.2 million bushels/week for the rest of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 19.8 mil/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales of 1.362 MMT (53.6 mil bu) were within market expectations of 700k-1.5 MMT, essentially unchanged from last week’s 54.0 mil bu and, again, well above last year’s same-week sales of 34.4 mil bu. This week’s activity included net sales of 141k tonnes to China, as well as 422k tonnes to unknown. The largest sales went to Mexico at 430k tonnes. Corn sales over the last three weeks have been quite solid, averaging 63.7 mil bu/week vs 29.2 mil/week during the same period last year. Total commitments of 1.561 billion bushels compare to 610 million at this time last year. Given the USDA’s already very strong export estimate of 2.650 billion bushels vs last year’s 1.778 billion, corn export sales will still need to average roughly 27.4 mil bu/week for the rest of the marketing year vs last year’s 30.1 million/week despite sales through the first quarter of the year being more than double year ago levels.
U.S. wheat sales continue to impress with 617k tonnes (22.7 mil bu) sold last week, above market expectations of 200-550k tonnes and well above year ago sales this week of 8.2 mil bu, with sales over the last five weeks averaging 18.8 mil bu/week vs 13.8 mil/week during the same period last year. While it wasn’t enough to show up in the daily announcements, this week’s activity did include 68k tonnes in new sales to China (65k white/3k HRW), bringing their total purchases this year to 2.1 MMT vs 0.2 MMT last year at this time. Total commitments of 680 million bushels are now up 12.4% from last year’s 605 million, matching the largest year-over-year percentage increase of 2020/21, now halfway through the marketing year. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 11.9 mil bu/week through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s 975 mil bu export projection vs last year’s 14.8 mil/week average from this point forward.
Soybean meal sales of 164k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes and held steady within the rather consistent range of sales over the last five weeks of 138-182k tonnes/week, while also meeting the average weekly “needed” sales pace of 152k tonnes/week. Total commitments are up a minor 1% from last year, still slightly outpacing the USDA’s current estimation of exports declining 4% on the year. Soybean oil sales of 8.4k tonnes were towards the bottom of market expectations of 5-30k tonnes, continuing the hit or miss nature of this year’s sales program which has featured either very strong sales or rather limited sales each week. Total commitments, though, are still up 10% from last year vs the USDA currently projecting exports down 8% on the year. SBO sales will need to average roughly 17.6k tonnes/week in order to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 20.0k/week average from this point forward.
