Posted on 11/4/2021 8:09:37 AM by Randy Mittelstaedt
-Corn sales within expectations
-Soybean sales towards upper end of expectations
-Wheat sales within expectations
-SBM sales at upper end of expectations/SBO sales within expectations
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 10/28/21, were 1.224 MMT (48.2 million bushels), within market expectations of 700k-1.4 MMT, up from the previous week’s disappointing 35.0 million bushels, and comparable to average sales over the prior four weeks of 44.0 million bushels. However, this week’s sales paled in comparison to last year’s massive 103 million bushel week, resulting in total commitments of 1.221 billion bushels now falling nearly 7% below last year’s 1.307 billion bushels at this time. Over the next six weeks last year, corn sales still averaged a very stout 55.1 million bushels/week, considerably above the 33.2 million/week average through the first nine weeks of this marketing year, implying commitments are likely to continue falling further behind year ago levels in the weeks ahead. The largest sales of the week easily went to Mexico with 685k tonnes, with the next largest being Guatemala at 105k tonnes. There was no sales activity by China for the week. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 28.6 million bushels/week from this point forward vs last year’s 33.7 million/week average.
U.S. soybean sales of 1.864 MMT (68.5 million bushels) were toward the upper end of market expectations of 1.0-2.0 MMT, up from the previous week’s 43.5 million, modestly above last year’s 56.2 million and were the 2nd highest of the first nine weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year. That being said, they were still considerably below the 89 million bushels/week average weekly sales experienced during the first nine weeks of the marketing year last year. New net sales to China for the week were 711k tonnes, bringing their total purchases so far this year to 17.3 MMT, continuing to run massively below last year’s purchases at this time of 26.8 MMT. The next largest sales for the week went to Mexico with 158k tonnes. Total sales on the books to destinations other than China now stand at 17.8 MMT vs 21.6 MMT last year. Total commitments of 1.187 billion bushels remain down 33% from last year’s 1.780 billion vs USDA currently estimating 2021/22 total exports to decline 8% from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 20.8 million bushels/week from this point forward vs last year’s 11.8 million/week average.
U.S. wheat sales of 400k tonnes (14.7 million bushels) were within market expectations of 180-500k tonnes, up from the previous week’s disappointing sales of 9.9 million bushels, but well below last year’s 21.9 million bushels, putting total commitments of 478 million bushels at an 8-week largest shortfall to last year’s 616 million bushels of 22.4%. At that level, total sales on the books are the 2nd lowest on record (40 years) for late October. The largest sales of the week went to Mexico with 127k tonnes, while there were minor net cancellations by China of 100k tonnes, who currently have 848k tonnes of U.S. wheat on the books vs 1.6 MMT at this time last year. In order to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, which would be down 12% from last year vs current sales being down 22%, we estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 11.7 million bushels/week vs last year’s 10.9 million/week average through the end of next May.
U.S soybean meal sales of 227k tonnes were at the upper end of expectations of 100-250k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 162k tonnes, but below last year’s 331k tonnes this week. Through the first four weeks of 2021/22, SBM sales have averaged 249k tonnes/week, nearly identical to last year’s 251k/week, with total commitments holding onto a 5% increase from last year at this time. In order to reach the USDA’s export projection, we estimate this year’s sales program will need to run identical to last year’s, averaging 160k tonnes/week from this point forward vs the 164k tonne/week average a year ago. Soybean oil sales were routine at 11.2k tonnes, in line with expectations of 0-20k tonnes, but doing little to help the overall cause as total commitments remain down a massive 41% from last year vs USDA’s current export projection reflecting an expected 27% decline in exports for the year. We estimate soybean oil sales will need to average roughly 7.2k tonnes/week to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 9.7k tonnes/week average from this point forward.
