-Soybean sales within expectations but easily marketing year low
-Corn sales larger than expected and marketing year high
-Wheat sales at very top end of expectations
-SBM sales within expectations/SBO sales at bottom of expectations
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 10/22/20, were 1.621 MMT (59.5 million bushel), within market expectations of 1.0-2.0 MMT, but down solidly from the previous week’s 81.8 million bushels and were easily a marketing year low through the first 8 weeks of 2020/21, which had seen sales range from 81.8-117.4 million bushels/week so far. This week’s activity included net sales to China of 569k tonnes, bringing their total commitments to 26.0 MMT vs 6.2 MMT on the books at this time last year. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.726 billion bushels continue to dwarf last year’s 704 million and easily remain record high for late October. The previous record sales on the books at this point of the marketing year was 1.327 billion bushels in 2016/17. Given the exceptionally strong sales so far, we estimate sales from this point forward will only need to average roughly 11.6 million bushels/week vs last year’s 23.6 million/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection.
U.S. corn sales last week were surprisingly high at 2.244 MMT (88.3 million bushels), a new marketing year high, well above market expectations of 700k-1.5 MMT and up from the previous week’s also-strong 72.1 million bushels. There were no meaningful sales reported to China specifically this week, but sales to unknown were 776k tonnes. The largest sales to a reported destination were 505k tonnes to Mexico. Without any reported sales to China this week, total purchases remain at 10.6 MMT. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.204 billion bushels compare to 449 million at this time last year and are record high for late October in surpassing the previous record of 1.095 billion bushels in 2007/08. Based on the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 24.5 million bushels/week for the rest of 2020/21 vs last year’s 29.7 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales last week were solid at 743k tonnes (27.3 million bushels), marginally topping the range of market expectations of 200-700k tonnes, rebounding sharply from the previous week’s poor sales of 13.5 million bushels and were the highest in 9 weeks. The largest sales of the week went to South Korea at 195k tonnes, but there were 60k tonnes in sales (white wheat) reported to China, as well, bringing their total purchases to 1.6 MMT so far. Total commitments of 594 million bushels are up nearly 11% from last year’s 536 million, while the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection reflects an estimated 1% increase in annual exports. In order to reach the USDA’s projection, we estimate sales will need to average roughly 12.9 million bushels/week vs last year’s 14.7 million/week average from this point forward.
Soybean meal sales last week of 199k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-400k tonnes, while soybean oil sales of 6.0k tonnes were at the bottom of expectations of 5-40k. SBM total commitments are up 6% from last year through four weeks of 2020/21, while SBO commitments are down 5%. USDA is currently projection SBM exports this year down 3% from last year and SBO exports down 7%.
