-Corn sales at bottom end of expectations
-Soybeans sales lower than expected
-Wheat sales at bottom end of expectations – total sales now record low
-SBM sales at bottom end of expectations/SBO sales within expectations
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 10/21/21, of 890k tonnes (35.1 million bushels) were at the bottom end of market expectations of 800k-1.3 MMT, down from the previous week’s 50.1 million bushels, a 4-week low and significantly below last year’s same-week sales of 88.3 million. Accordingly, total commitments of 1.173 billion bushels slipped below year ago levels for the first time of the marketing year, now down 2.6% from last year’s 1.204 billion in a continuation of the dramatic reversal of what previously had been a record early sales pace for corn amid the massive Chinese purchases in May. Over a span of three weeks, China bought 10.7 MMT of U.S. corn in May, prompting new crop total sales to soar to a record 593 million bushels at the time. Since then, Chinese buying has been nearly non-existent with total commitments now standing at 11.9 MMT, reflecting total purchases of only 1.2 MMT since May. This week’s activity included minor net cancellations by China of 1k tonnes. We would also note, total sales currently on the books to all other destinations besides China of 17.9 MMT are below last year’s 20.0 MMT at this time. Based on the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 29.0 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year vs last year’s 35.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean sales of 1.183 MMT (43.5 mil bu) were below the range of market ideas of 1.25-2.0 MMT, down from the previous week’s very strong sales of 105.8 million bushels and returned to the rather steady pace of sales seen for most of the first 8 weeks of 2021/22, which averaged nearly 42 million bushels/week so far excluding last week’s huge sales. With this week’s sales below last year’s 59.6 million bushels this week, total commitments of 1.119 billion bushels remain down 35% from last year’s 1.726 billion on the books at this time. This week’s activity was again dominated by Chinese and likely Chinese business with reported Chinese purchases of 591k tonnes and sales to unknown of 166k tonnes. The largest non-Chinese purchases went to Mexico with 100k tonnes. Soybean sales to non-Chinese destinations remain a concern with total sales on the books currently at 14.4 MMT vs 20.9 MMT sold “others” at this time last year. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 21.9 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year vs last year’s average sales from this point forward of 12.7 million/week.
U.S. wheat sales last week were 269k tonnes (9.9 mil bu), at the bottom of market expectations of 200-550k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 13.3 million, significantly below last year’s same-week sales of 27.3 million and were the lowest in 9 weeks. The largest sales of the week were to Mexico with 146k tonnes, with the next largest sales a mere 23k tonnes to Honduras. Total commitments of 463 million bushels are now down 22% from last year and are now the lowest on record for this week of the marketing year going back 40 years. Through the first 21 weeks of 2021/22, wheat sales have averaged 13.0 million bushels/week vs last year’s 18.5 million/week during the same period. In order to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, we estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 11.8 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 11.2 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 162k tonnes were at bottom end of market expectations of 150-375k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 240k and slightly below last year’s same-week sales of 199k. Total commitments are now up 7.6% from last year, slipping in recent weeks, with sales needing to average roughly 161k tonnes/week vs last year’s 167k/week over the 2021/22 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales were decent at 14.6k tonnes, in line with expectations of 0-20k, but total commitments of 123k tonnes remain down a massive 45% from last year.
