-Soybean sales strong again – within expectations
-Corn sales larger than expected
-Wheat sales modest – within expectations
-SBM sales at top end of expectations/SBO sales higher than expected
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 10/15/20, were 2.226 MMT (81.8 million bushels), within market expectations of 1.5-2.5 MMT, but again massively above year ago sales this week of a paltry 15.0 million bushels, and pushing 2020/21 total commitments to 1.666 billion bushels vs 671 million bushels in sales on the books at this time last year. This week’s sales included another 834k tonnes sold to China, bringing their total purchases so far to 24.9 MMT vs 5.7 MMT a year ago. There were also at least 580k tonnes in net sales to unknown for the week, as well. Through the first seven weeks of the marketing year, soybean sales have averaged a phenomenal 97.8 million bushels (2.66 MMT)/week. Based on current commitments on the books, we estimate soybean sales will only need to average roughly 12.6 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 23.9 million bushel/week average from this point forward. Over the last five years, Nov-Aug soybean sales averaged 22.8 million bushels/week, with a minimum 21.0 million/week average for the period. Prior to that, though, with strong early marketing year buying by China, sales from this point forward over the previous 5-year period averaged a much lower 13.4 million bushels/week.
U.S. corn sales last week rebounded to a solid 1.832 MMT (72.1 million bushels), above market expectations of 800k-1.4 MMT, from the previous two weeks’ sales of 25.8 million and 48.3 million bushels. The jump in sales last week was helped by 434k tonnes to China, bringing their 2020/21 total purchases to 10.5 MMT vs a mere 60k tonnes on the books a year ago. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.116 billion bushels compare to 427 million bushels at this time last year and are record high through seven weeks of the marketing year. Based on the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 26.0 million bushels/week through the end of August vs 29.5 million/week last year and most-recent 5-year average of 31.1 million/week.
U.S. wheat sales were a bit disappointing at 368k tonnes (13.5 mil bu), falling in the lower portion of market expectations of 200-800k tonnes and down from the previous three weeks’ 18.6-19.5 million bushels. Despite this, sales were still better than last year’s 9.6 million bushels this week, allowing total commitments of 567 million bushels to push the year-over-year increase to nearly 10% relative to last year’s 518 million and continuing to solidly outpace the USDA’s projection for a 1% increase in total exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection, we estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 13.3 million bushels/week vs last year’s 14.8 million/week average through the end of May.
Soybean meal sales were strong at 322k tonnes, at the top end of market expectations of 100-350k tonnes, while soybean oil sales of 37k tonnes topped market expectations of 0-30k tonnes. Only three weeks into the 2020/21 marketing year, we estimate soybean meal sales will need to average roughly 157k tonnes/week vs last year’s 168k/week in order to reach the USDA’s annual export projection, while soybean oil sales will need to average roughly 19k tonnes/week vs last year’s 22k/week.