-Corn sales in upper range of market ideas
-Soybean sales slightly better than expected
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM sales within expectations, SBO sales minimal
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 10/14/21, were 1.273 MMT (50.1 million bushels), towards the upper end of market expectations of 700k-1.4 MMT, up from the previous week’s 40.9 million and were the best of the 2021/22 marketing year so far just outpacing sales two weeks prior of 49.9 million bushels. However, this week’s sales were still considerably below last year’s 72.1 million bushels this week, prompting total commitments of 1.138 billion bushels to fall to only 2.0% above year ago levels and are likely to slip below last year over the next two weeks with sales a year ago in the coming weeks of 88 million and 103 million bushels. The largest sales of the week went to unknown destinations of around 630k tonnes, while activity by China was negligible. The largest reported sales were to Mexico of 416k tonnes. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 29.2 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year vs last year’s 36.5 million/week average from this point forward and the most-recent 5-year average of 31.7 million/week.
U.S. soybean sales were easily a marketing year high at 2.878 MMT (105.8 million bushels), coming in slightly above the range of market expectations of 1.5-2.5 MMT, as strong sales were anticipated with more than 1.3 MMT in previously-announced sales through the daily reporting system for the period already known. The previous best sales week of 2021/22 so far was 54.1 million bushels, while last year’s sales this week were also quite strong at 81.8 million bushels. Accordingly, despite the impressive sales tally, total commitments of 1.075 billion bushels made little gain on the year-over-year deficit, still being down 36% from this time last year. This week’s activity included net buying by China of 1.3 MMT, with sales of roughly 1.3 MMT for unknown, as well. Besides the sales to China and unknown, the largest sales were to Egypt of a mere 97k tonnes. China’s total commitments now stand at 15.0 MMT vs 24.9 MMT at this time last year. Based on the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, we estimate sales will need to average roughly 22.3 million bushels/week over the rest of the marketing year vs last year’s 13.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales of 362k tonnes (13.3 mil bu) were within market expectations of 250-650k tonnes, falling from the previous week’s strong 20.9 million bushels and returning to more typical sales seen so far in 2021/22 which have averaged 13.1 million bushels/week. Total commitments of 453 million bushels are holding steady at a 20% year-over-year deficit to last year’s 567 million, while the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection reflects an expected 12% decline in exports for the year. In order to reach the USDA’s export projection, we estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 11.7 million bushels/week through the end of May, essentially identical to last year’s average sales pace from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales were solid at 240k tonnes, within expectations of 150-400k tonnes, but easily beating the roughly 161k tonnes/week average “needed” sales pace and followed the previous week’s also-strong 365k tonnes. Total commitments, now two weeks into 2021/22 are up 9% from last year vs USDA estimating exports this year to be up 2% from 2020/21. Soybean oil sales remain miniscule with only 3.0k tonnes sold for the week vs market expectations of 4-25k tonnes and paled in comparison to last year’s sales this week of 37k tonnes. Total commitments of 108k tonnes are now down 50% from last year’s 215k tonnes, leaving sales needing to average roughly 7.5k tonnes/week vs last year’s 9.5k/week average in order to reach the USDA’s 1.250 billion pound export projection – reflecting an expected 27% decline in exports on the year.
