-Corn sales at bottom of expectations
-Soybean sales within expectations
-Wheat sales within expectations
-SBM sales respectable/SBO sales remain minimal
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 9/19/21, were only 373k tonnes (14.7 million bushels), at the bottom of market expectations of 300-800k tonnes, up only modestly from the previous week’s dismal 9.7 million bushels and massively below last year’s same-week sales of 84.2 million bushels. Over the first three weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year, corn sales have totaled 60.1 million bushels vs 219.3 million sold during the same period last year. The largest sales this week were 136k tonnes to Canada, 135k to Mexico and 72k tonnes to Japan with virtually no sales to anyone else. After running sharply ahead of year ago levels thanks to the previous very strong sales to China, total commitments of 982 million bushels are now up only 10% from last year’s 890 million and are very likely to slip below year ago levels in the next several weeks as last year’s sales over the next 6 weeks averaged 70 million bushels/week. We estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 29.5 million bushels/week vs last year’s 38.1 million/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.475 billion bushel export projection.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 903k tonnes (33.2 mil bu) were within expectations of 500k-1.1 MMT, but were down from the previous week’s 46.5 million, massively below last year’s same-week sales of 121.7 million bushels and were the lowest in 7 weeks. Nearly all of this week’s sales were Chinese at 756k tonnes, with the next largest sales being a mere 58k tonnes to Egypt. During the first three weeks of 21/22, soybean sales have totaled 134 million bushels vs 326 million during the same period last year. Accordingly, total commitments of 852 million bushels continue to decline relative to year ago levels, now down 35% from last year’s 1.306 billion. We estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 25.1 million bushels/week vs last year’s 20.0 million/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection.
U.S. wheat sales of 356k tonnes (13.1 mil bu) were within expectations of 250-600k tonnes and met the average “needed” sales pace of roughly 12.0 million bushels/week based on the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, but were the lowest in three weeks. Over the last four weeks, wheat sales have averaged 15.3 million bushels/week, comparable to the same-period pace last year of 16.1 million/week, with total commitments of 396 million bushels maintaining the roughly 20% year-over-year deficit seen in recent weeks. While uneventful and certainly uninspiring, the pace of wheat sales has been enough through the first 16 weeks of 21/22 to support the USDA’s export projection so far.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 45k tonnes old crop/216k tonnes new crop met market expectations of 50-100k/25-175k tonnes in total, while old crop total commitment of 12.281 MMT are still up 1.4% from last year with two weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year vs the USDA’s current export projection reflecting essentially unchanged exports from last year, while new crop commitments of 2.365 MMT are virtually identical to last year’s new crop sales at this time. Soybean oil sales remain dismal at 4.3k tonnes old crop and zero new crop. Old crop total commitments are down 46% from last year vs USDA estimating 20/21 exports to be down 40%, while new crop total sales remain minimal at only 7.6k tonnes vs 122.4k at this time last year.
