-Corn sales net cancellations old crop/within expectations new crop
-Soybean sales larger than expected
-Wheat sales within expectations
-SBM sales limited old crop/higher than expected new crop
-SBO sales remain minimal
NOTE: This week’s data reflects the last full week of the 2020/21 corn and soybean marketing years.
U.S. old crop corn sales, for the week ended 8/26/21, the last full week of the 2020/21 marketing year, were net cancellations of 301k tonnes (11.8 million bushels) due to reductions of 210k tonnes by Canada, 133k China and 23k tonnes El Salvador. Expectations were -100k to +100k tonnes. With five days remaining in the year, China had 1.22 MMT (48 mil bu) of unshipped purchases still on the books, which largely look to be rolled forward to 2021/22. Based on the latest available shipment data, we see 2020/21 exports falling 30-40 million bushels short of the USDA’s current 2.775 billion bushel export projection. It wasn’t a matter of sales falling short of needed levels, but simply a larger than usual amount of old crop sales not being shipped and rolled forward to next year, which may be as high as 110 million bushels vs last year’s 49 million in carry-over sales. New crop sales of 1.160 MMT (20.8 mil bu) were within market expectations of 850k-1.6 MMT and included 465k tonnes by Mexico, 352k Colombia and 293k Canada (largely old crop rollovers), with no new activity reported for China. 2021/22 total commitments of 805 million bushels compare to 621 million at this time last year.
Old crop soybean sales were 68k tonnes (2.5 mil bu) vs expectations of -100k to +125k tonnes and included 26k tonnes to China. Based on the latest shipping data, we expect 2020/21 exports to prove 20-30 million bushels larger than the USDA’s 2.260 billion bushel export projection. Total unshipped old crop sales currently on the books are down to 71 million bushels, already below the 93 million bushels carried over to new crop last year with five days remaining in the marketing year. China still has 718k tonnes (26 mil bu) in unshipped sales on the books, but is below 1.28 MMT at this time last year. New crop sales were stronger than expected at 2.133 MMT (78.4 mil bu) with market ideas put at 725k-1.4 MMT and included 1.264 MMT to China and 654k tonnes to unknown. Total new crop sales of 652 million bushels, though, remain well below last year’s 889 million heading into the new marketing year.
U.S. wheat sales of 295k tonnes (10.9 mil bu) were within expectations of 200-450k tonnes as the overall sales pace remains quite weak, averaging just 9.7 mil bu/week over the last five weeks vs 20.5 million/week during the same period last year. Total commitments of 346 million bushels are now down 24% from last year’s 452 million, while USDA is currently estimating 2021/22 exports down only 12% on the year. While the lower than previously expected crops in Russia and Canada, along with the late-season reductions in the EU crop, may eventually push some additional business to the U.S., there certainly has not been any additional interest so far. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.4 million bushels/week over the remainder of the year to reach the USDA’s current annual estimate, essentially on par with year ago sales from this point forward.
Old crop soybean meal sales were a marketing year low at 18k tonnes (25-200k tonnes expected), but total sales on the books are already at levels exceeding those to be able to reach the USDA’s export projection so a slowdown is not unexpected over the final 5-6 weeks of 2020/21. New crop sales were strong, though, at 397 tonnes, well above expectations of 75-200k tonnes, with the largest sales being 104k tonnes to Colombia and 90k to the Philippines. Total new crop sales on the books of 2.058 MMT compare to 1.538 MMT at this time last year. Soybean oil sales remain minimal with 4.1k tonnes sold for old crop and only 0.7k new crop, with expectations of 0-10k tonnes for each. Old crop commitments remain 46% below last year vs USDA estimating exports to be down 40%, while total new crop sales remain abysmal at only 1.4k tonnes vs 105k tonnes in new crop sales at this time last year.
