-Corn sales within expectations
-Soybean sales at upper end of expectations
-Wheat sales minimal – lower than expected
-SBM sales modest – SBO sales minimal
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 8/19/21, were uneventful with old crop sales a mere 7k tonnes (0.3 million bushels) vs expectations of -100k to +250k tonnes, while new crop sales of 684k tonnes (26.9 mil bu) were within expectations of 500k-1.0 MMT. Old crop activity featured net cancellations by China of 135k tonnes, leaving them with roughly 1.5 MMT (59 mil bu) in unshipped old crop sales still on the books with 12 days remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year. In total, 163 million bushels of outstanding (unshipped) old crop sales remain on the books vs 92 million bushels at this time last year. Based on recent shipment and sales activity, we feel old crop exports could prove around 25 million bushels below the USDA’s current 2.775 billion bushel projection. New crop sales were dominated by Mexico with 492k tonnes, while there was no new activity by China for the week. 2021/22 total commitments of 759 million bushels remain well above last year’s 527 million thanks to the aggressive earlier purchases by China of 10.7 MMT.
U.S. soybean sales for the week were 75k tonnes (2.8 mil bu) old crop vs expectations of -100k to +125k tonnes and new crop 1.750 MMT (64.3 mil bu) vs expectations of 1.3-2.0 MMT, with Chinese activity for the week being net old crop purchases of 24k tonnes and 935k tonnes new crop. China now has 763k tonnes in old crop unshipped purchases still on the books, but based on the level of cumulative exports so far, we feel 2020/21 exports are likely to prove 10-20 million bushels above the USDA’s current 2.260 billion bushel projection. 2021/22 total commitments of 574 million bushels compare unfavorably to last year’s 824 million bushels as China currently has 6.7 MMT in new crop purchases on the books vs 12.5 MMT at this time last year.
U.S. wheat sales were disappointing at only 116k tonnes (4.3 mil bu) vs market expectations of 200-600k tonnes, easily a marketing year low through the first 12 weeks of 2021/22 (previous low sales were 8.2 mil bu), prompting total commitments of 335 million bushels to fall to a marketing year high negative shortfall to last year of 23%. The largest sales of the week went to Thailand at a mere 47k tonnes. Despite USDA estimating this year’s exports down 117 million bushels from last year, the current shortfall in sales will require wheat sales to average roughly 12.4 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel projection, essentially identical to last year’s sales from this point forward. Through the first 12 weeks of 21/22, wheat sales have averaged 12.1 mil bu/week vs last year’s 19.4 million/week during the same period.
Old crop soybean meal sales of 62k tonnes were towards the bottom of expectations of 25-350k tonnes, while new crop sales of 140k tonnes were at the upper end of expectations of 50-150k tonnes. Old crop total commitments of 12.062 MMT are essentially identical to last year’s at this time and in line with USDA projecting 2020/21 exports unchanged on the year, but we continue to feel exports may prove a bit larger than the USDA is currently projecting given the difference in official Census Bureau export data and that reflected by Export Sales. New crop, 2021/22, total commitments of 1.662 MMT are modestly above last year’s 1.309 MMT at this time. Soybean oil sales activity remains negligible with only 3k tonnes in old crop sales (0-20k expected) and no new crop sales for the week. Old crop total commitments remain down 46% on the year vs USDA projecting a 40% decline in annual exports, while new crop commitments are only 0.7k tonnes vs 122k tonnes in new crop sales at this time last year.
