-Corn/soybeans net cancellations – new crop sales uneventful
-Wheat sales decent
-SBM sales modest/SBO minimal
Old crop U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 7/22/21, were net cancellations of 115k tonnes (-4.5 mil bu) vs expectations of -100 to + 300k tonnes, the 2nd week of net cancellations in a row and pushes the weekly “needed” sales pace through the end of August up to around 8 million bushels/week as the 2020/21 export program appears set to finish with a whimper. Based on the recent shipment pace and net cancellations of late, it appears final exports are likely to fall a bit short of the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export projection. The cancellations were all by China of 119k tonnes, while net reductions to unknown of 72k tonnes were the result of switches to reported destinations. China now has 3.6 MMT in unshipped old crop purchases still on the books with five full weeks remaining in the marketing year, which would require weekly shipments of roughly 700k tonnes to fulfill by the end of August. Shipments the last two weeks were around 700k tonnes each, but the previous three weeks were all below 500k tonnes. Total old crop commitments of 2.742 billion bushels compare to 1.720 billion last year. New crop sales of 529k tonnes (20.8 mil bu) were above market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, but hardly noteworthy, with no new sales to China reported and the largest sales going to Mexico with 172k tonnes. Given the earlier strong Chinese purchases, though, total new crop sales of 656 million bushels remain sharply above last year’s 328 million and record high for the period.
U.S. soybean sales were net cancellations of 79k tonnes (-2.9 mil bu) vs market expectations of -100 to +100k tonnes, with Japan canceling 75k tonnes as well as 52k tonnes by unknown. New sales of 2020/21 soybeans were nearly non-existent last week. However, with total commitments of 2.274 billion bushels, the USDA’s 2.270 billion bushel export projection still appears on target when taking into consideration the difference between official Census Bureau export data and that reported by Export Sales. China still has 781k tonnes in unshipped old crop purchases on the books, though, and really hasn’t been shipping any in recent weeks which needs to continue being watched. New crop sales were 313k tonnes (11.5 mil bu) vs expectations of 200-400k tonnes, with 121k tonnes to China, bringing 2021/22 total sales to 374 million bushels vs 505 million at this time last year, which are decent in historical terms but far from impressive.
U.S. wheat sales of 515k tonnes (18.9 mil bu) were within market expectations of 350-600k tonnes, but were up from the previous week’s 17.5 million bushels and were a 2021/22 marketing year high through the first 8 weeks. The largest referenced “sales” of the week were to China of 130k tonnes, but all were switches from previously-reported unknown sales, with the largest reported sales being to Mexico with 86k tonnes. Total commitments of 298 million bushels remain down 15% from last year’s 350 million, though, while sales will need to average roughly 12.1 million bushels/week over the remainder of the year to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection vs last year’s 13.5 million/week average from this point forward.
Old crop soybean meal sales were 87k tonnes, up slightly from the last two week’s sales of 68k and 71k tonnes, were within market expectations of 50-200k tonnes and were again modestly above the roughly 42k tonnes/week we estimate is needed based on the USDA’s current export projection. New crop sales were 73k tonnes (25-125k expected), bringing 2021/22 total sales to 1.130 MMT vs 557k at this time last year. Soybean oil sales were minimal again at only 2.2k tonnes (0-10k expected), but were actually the highest in four weeks, but still below the roughly 3.1k tonnes/week we estimate is needed over the final 10 weeks of the year to reach the USDA’s export projection. Over the last 12 weeks, soybean oil sales have averaged a mere 0.9k tonnes/week. There are essentially no new crop sales on the books, which isn’t uncommon for SBO, though, as there were only 21k tonnes in new crop sales at this time last year.
