-Corn sales small net cancellations – bottom of trade expectations
-Soybean sales small net positive – within expectations
-Wheat sales respectable – within expectations
-SBM sales at very bottom of expectations/SBO sales minimal
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 7/15/21, were net cancellations of 88k tonnes (3.5 million bushels) as Chinese cancellations of 160k tonnes (6.3 mil bu) more than offset all other sales for the week, the largest of which were a mere 21k tonnes to Panama. This week’s net cancellations were the 2nd of the marketing year but the first in 10 weeks. Market expectations for this week’s sales were -100k to +300k tonnes. China still has 4.4 MMT (174 mil bu) in old crop unshipped sales officially on the books, with the handling of those sales likely to play a key role in 2020/21 final exports. Continued cancellations and/or pushes to new crop likely will leave exports falling short of the USDA’s projection. Total commitments of 2.474 billion bushels compare to 1.721 billion a year ago with old crop sales now needing to average nearly 8 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s projection vs the 3.7 million/week average over the last 7 weeks. We may end up finding a few extra bushels in the old crop balance sheet after all if the recent sales pattern continues over the final six weeks of the year. New crop sales were minimal at 47k tonnes (1.9 mil bu) vs expectations of 100-400k tonnes, with 2021/22 total commitments of 635 million bushels still easily record high and sharply above new crop sales last year of 303 million bushels.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 62k tonnes (2.3 mil bu) were within market expectations of -50k to +200k tonnes and still slightly net positive despite consistent expectations to see some weeks of net cancellations. Chinese activity was uneventful at minor net cancellations of 0.6k tonnes. Total old crop commitments of 2.278 billion bushels compare to 1.705 billion a year ago and have essentially already reached the level needed in order to allow the USDA’s 2.270 billion bushel export projection to be met when taking into account differences with official Census Bureau data and expected carry-over sales to next year. Now it’s just a matter of getting it shipped. China has 781k tonnes (29 mil bu) in old crop unshipped soybeans still on the books. New crop sales of 176k tonnes (6.5 mil bu) were in the lower portion of market expectations of 100-450k tonnes, bringing 2021/22 total commitments to 363 million bushels vs new crop sales last year of 382 million, the first time they’ve slipped below year ago levels so far. New crop sales activity to China was only 6k tonnes, bringing their total purchases for next year to 4.1 MMT vs 6.1 MMT at this time last year.
U.S. wheat sales were respectable at 473k tonnes (17.4 mil bu), in line with market expectations of 300-600k tonnes, the best of the first 7 weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year, but still below year ago sales this week of 21.6 mil bu. Accordingly, total commitments of 279 million bushels fell to a season high 14% below last year’s 325 million. The largest sales of the week went to China with 135k tonnes (previously announced SRW sales), followed by the Philippines with 123k tonnes. In order to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.2 million bushels/week vs last year’s 13.7 million/week average from this point forward. So far, HRW sales are running the furthest behind USDA ideas, being down 25% from last vs USDA projecting a 5% increase.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 68k tonnes were little-changed from the previous week’s 70k, but were just below the bottom of market expectations of 75-300k tonnes and were a new marketing year low. However, given the strong sales pace previously, they were still above the roughly 47k tonnes/week needed based on the USDA’s current export projection. New crop sales were only 19k tonnes, below expectations of 100-200k tonnes, but 2021/22 total commitments of 1.057 MMT remain well above new crop sales last year of 524k tonnes. Soybean oil sales were minimal again at 0.7k tonnes, having averaged a mere 0.8k tonnes/week over the last 11 weeks, but still need to average roughly 3k tonnes/week to reach the USDA’s export projection, which may require further lowering yet.
