-Corn sales minimal again – China net cancellations
-Soybean sales minimal as expected
-Wheat sales at bottom of expectations
-SBM sales as expected/SBO sales minimal
-Corn sales minimal again – China net cancellations
-Soybean sales minimal as expected
-Wheat sales at bottom of expectations
-SBM sales as expected/SBO sales minimal
It was another week of very limited Export Sales across the board, with only SBM sales posting respectable activity.
U.S. old crop corn sales, for the week ended 6/24/21, were minimal again at only 15k tonnes (0.6 million bushels), putting total combined sales over the last four weeks at 17.3 million bushels. Expectations for this week’s sales were -100k to +400k tonnes. Based on the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will still need to average roughly 5 million bushels/week through the end of August, while sales over the last four weeks averaged 4.3 million/week. Obviously considerably reduced sales are likely through the end of the year, but it will simply be a matter of whether some level of minimal sales will be maintained to keep the USDA’s target within reach. This week’s activity reflected net old crop cancellations by China of 75k tonnes, as they now have 6.1 MMT in unshipped sales still on the books. Their shipment pace will be increasing watched in the weeks ahead for any signs a decent amount of old crop purchases may be rolled forward to next year, which would have an impact on final export ideas. Shipments last week slowed to only 335k tonnes from the 800k+ average of the previous four weeks. One week obviously does not indicate a pattern, but with 9 weeks remaining in 20/21, shipments would need to average roughly 700k tonnes/week in order to clear their old crop purchases. Total commitments of 2.738 billion bushels compare to 1.666 billion a year ago. New crop sales were also quite limited at only 68k tonnes (2.7 mil bu) vs expectations of 150-650k tonnes, with no activity by China, as new crop commitments of 620 million bushels easily remain record high for late June and compare to 153 million bushels last year.
Old crop soybean sales were 93k tonnes (3.4 million bushels), within expectations of -100k to +300k tonnes and, while minimal, sales continue to run at levels supporting the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Despite continual expectations for net cancellations to be seen, sales have been net positive in each of the last 12 weeks, while there has only been 1 week of cancellations so far for the year. Over the last 8 weeks, soybean sales averaged 2.5 million bushels/week vs the minimal 1.4 million/week average we estimate is needed based on the USDA’s export projection. Interestingly, China was the largest buyer of old crop soybeans for the week at 31k tonnes, as they still have 773k tonnes in unshipped 20/21 purchases on the books. Total commitments of 2.272 billion bushels compare to 1.647 billion last year. New crop sales were strong at 1.670 MMT (61.4 mil bu), in line with expectations of 1.0-2.0 MMT with 1.1 MMT to China and 512k tonnes to unknown. Total new crop commitments of 341 million bushels compare to 255 million at this time last year.
U.S. wheat sales were uneventful at 226k tonne (8.3 mil bu) vs expectations of 200-500k tonnes and were the lowest of the first four weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year. Sales have averaged only 11.2 million bushels/week to start the year vs last year’s 14.7 million/week average during the same period and the current “needed” sales pace of 12.9 million bushels/week. With the expected poor spring wheat crop this year, we see USDA needing to lower their export projection at some point. Total commitments of 235 million bushels are now down 11% from last year’s 263 million bushels, while USDA is currently estimating 2021/22 exports down nearly 9% from last year.
U.S. soybean meal sales were respectable again at 233k tonnes, in line with expectations of 125-400k tonnes and again significantly beating the roughly 65k tonnes/week we estimate is needed based on the USDA’s current export projection. SBM sales have averaged a very impressive 220k tonnes/week over the last 7 weeks, likely prompting another upward revision in the USDA’s July 12 WASDE report. New crop sales of 185k tonnes were within expectations of 125-275k tonnes, bringing 21/22 total sales to 856k tonnes vs new crop sales last year of 369k tonnes. Soybean oil sales were minimal again at 2.3k tonnes (0-15k expected) and have averaged a miniscule 1.1k tonnes/week over the last 8 weeks vs the roughly 5.3k tonnes/week needed based the USDA’s current export projection. Total commitments are currently down 43% from last year vs USDA estimating exports down 33% on the year, likely indicating another downward revision in their estimate is forthcoming.
