-Corn old crop sales sales minimal – at bottom of expectations – new crop sales limited
-Soybean sales remain minimal
-Wheat sales towards lower end of expectations
-SBM sales remain respectable, SBO sales minimal
U.S. corn old crop sales, for the week ended 6/10/21, were minimal at only 18k tonnes (0.7 million bushels), towards the bottom of market expectations of -100k to +400k tonnes, and were the 2nd lowest of 2020/21 marketing year behind only the net cancellations reported in the first week of May. Chinese activity was essentially non-existent for the week with the overall sales situation nearly grinding to a halt in recent weeks. Based on the USDA’s new 2.850 billion bushel export projection, we estimate sales will need to average a rather modest 5.0 million bushels/week through the end of the August, but sales have totaled only 8.2 million bushels in the last two weeks so some semblance of an old crop export program will need to be maintained if the USDA’s projection is to be met. Total commitments stand at 2.729 billion bushels vs 1.633 billion last year. New crop sales were limited, as well, at 276k tonnes (10.9 mil bu) vs expectations of 100-500k tonnes, with no new activity by China, bringing 2021/22 total commitments to 605 million bushels vs 140 million a year ago.
Old crop soybean sales remain minimal with 65k tonnes (2.4 mil bu) sold last week vs expectations of -100 to +200k tonnes, but at least were net positive and kept up with the limited 1.8 million/week in sales we estimate is needed through the end of August to reach the USDA’s export projection. Over the last 6 weeks, soybean sales averaged 2.6 million bushels/week, ranging from 0.6 to 3.5 million bushels. Old crop activity for China was essentially non-existent. Total commitments of 2.264 billion bushels compare to 1.616 billion last year. New crop sales were minimal at 6.5k tonnes (0.2 mil bu) and included net cancellations by China of 43k tonnes. Total new crop commitments of 278 million bushels compare to 203 million at this time last year.
U.S. wheat sales last week were modest at 287k tonnes (10.5 million bushels), towards the lower end of market expectations of 200-500k tonnes and putting 2021/22 total commitments at 213 million bushels vs 233 million at this time last year. The largest sales of the week were routine by Japan of 95k tonnes. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.8 million bushels/week throughout the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection vs last year’s 14.2 million/week average.
Soybean meal sales were respectable, the only one of the group, at 177k tonnes, within expectations of 100-300k tonnes and again outpacing the roughly 96k tonnes/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. Over the last five weeks, SBM sales averaged 184k tonnes/week, maintaining a rather consistent solid pace, particularly compared to the other markets. Total commitments are currently down 2% from last year vs USDA projecting a 1% increase for the year, but is influenced by a rather strong period of sales last year, which averaged 242k tonnes/week during this 5-week stretch. New crop sales were minimal at 8k tonnes, bringing 21/22 total commitments to 650k tonnes vs 356k last year. Soybean oil sales were minimal again at only 2.2k tonnes vs expectations of 0-25k, with sales over the last six weeks averaging an abysmal 0.7k tonnes/week vs the roughly 5k tonnes/week average we estimate is needed even to reach the USDA’s recently sharply-reduced 1.900 billion pound export projection.
