-Old crop corn sales net cancellations – new crop sales solid
-Old/new crop soybean minimal
-Wheat sales uninspiring
-SBM/SBO sales at bottom of expectations
U.S. corn old crop sales, for the week ended 5/06/21, were net cancellations of 113k tonnes (4.5 million bushels) vs market expectations for sales of 100-300k tonnes and were the first week of outright net cancellations of the year. This week’s old crop activity by China reflected net cancellations of 334k tonnes, leaving their outstanding unshipped purchases on the books at 11.1 MMT (437 mil bu). We estimate old crop sales will need to average roughly 2.6 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s new 2.775 billion bushel export projection, on the assumption China ships the majority of remaining old crop sales on the books. In total, there are still 894 million bushels in total unshipped sales on the books to all destinations vs 519 million at this time a year ago. New crop sales were solid at 2.084 MMT (82.0 mil bu), thanks to sales of 1.360 MMT to China, 254k to unknown and 220k to Mexico. Total new crop commitments of 192 mil bu compare to 133 million at this time last year.
Old crop soybean sales were minimal at 94k tonnes (3.5 mil bu), but within market expectations of 0-250k tonnes and in line with the roughly 3.3 million/week average we estimate is needed through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Over the last five weeks, old crop sales have averaged 5.2 million bushels/week. This week’s old crop Chinese activity was minimal, while they still have 721k tonnes of 20/21 unshipped purchases on the books. New crop sales were also quite limited at just 103k tonnes (3.8 mil bu) with the only sales being 98k tonnes to Mexico and 5k to Japan. Total new crop commitments of 255 million bushels compare to 61 million bushels at this time last year thanks to China’s 3.1 MMT in purchases for 21/22 already.
Old crop wheat sales of 30k tonnes (1.1 mil bu) continued the recent-week trend of minimal sales, as would be expected with only three weeks remaining in the marketing year. Market expectations for this week’s sales were net cancellations of 75k tonnes to net positive sales of 110k tonnes. Over the last six weeks, old crop sales have averaged 2.6 mil bu/week, keeping up with the roughly 2.3 million/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s just-lowered 965 mil bu projection. However, the final tally on 20/21 exports will be more a factor of the actual shipment pace over the final weeks of the year vs new sales being made as there are still 93 million bushels of unshipped old crop sales on the books. New crop sales of 268k tonnes (9.8 mil bu) were within market expectations of 150-310k tonnes, but uninspiring, bringing 21/22 total commitments to 120 mil bu vs new crop sales of 84 mil bu at this time last year. This week’s Chinese activity included 9k tonnes in net old crop purchases and no new crop activity.
Old crop soybean meal sales of 75k tonnes were a 4-week low and at the bottom of market expectations of 75-285k tonnes, while falling below the roughly 116k tonnes/week we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. Over the last 7 weeks, though, SBM sales have averaged 129k tonnes/week. New crop sales were minimal at 32k tonnes with 21/22 total commitments at 483k tonnes vs 235k in new crop sales at this time last year. Old crop soybean oil sales were only 0.8k tonnes vs expectations of 0-30k, while sales over the last five weeks averaged only 2.9k tonnes/week, still well below the 13.5k/week average still needed to reach the USDA’s just-lowered export projection.
