-Corn sales in bottom portion of market expectations
-Soybean sales at bottom of expectations
-Wheat old crop sales as expected/new crop sales weak
-SBM sales at bottom of expectations/SBO sales as expected
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 4/30/20, were 775k tonnes (30.5 million bushels), towards the lower end of market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT, falling from the previous week’s strong sales of 53.4 million bushels and were the 2nd lowest the last nine weeks. However, as we wrote about in our pre-report commentary posted on Market Insights last evening, corn sales have run at an impressively good pace overall during the last two months or so, averaging a record 47.6 million bushels/week since early March. Given this period of strong sales, we estimate sales during May-Aug only need to average roughly 11.3 million bushels/week to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel projection, making it a very real possibility they will raise their estimate in next week’s WASDE report. Total commitments of 1.477 billion bushels are still down 19% from last year, but continuously gaining after being down 43% at the beginning of 2020.
U.S. soybean sales last week were 653k tonnes (24.0 million bushels), at the bottom of market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT and down from the previous week’s 39.6 million bushels. However, sales were still above the roughly 18.6 million bushels/week we estimate they will need to average through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection, but we would note the “needed” sales pace easily reflects what would be record sales activity for the May-Aug period. Soybean sales from this point forward last year averaged just 8.5 million bushels/week. This week’s activity reflected 222k tonnes in new sales to China, bringing their 2019/20 total commitments to 13.5 MMT vs 13.3 MMT at this time last year. Total commitments of 1.459 billion bushels are down 12% from last year’s 1.649 billion, but gaining after being down more than 16% in early March.
U.S. old crop wheat sales last week were 245k tonnes (9.0 million bushels), towards the upper end of market expectations of 50-300k tonnes as only four full weeks remain in the 2019/20 marketing year. Total commitments of 962 million bushels are already large enough to all the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection to be reached when taking into account the differences between official Census Bureau data and exports of wheat flour/products. It’s just a matter of whether it actually gets shipped over the last few weeks of the year. There are 138 million bushels in outstanding (unshipped) sales currently on the books vs 156 mil bu at this time last year. New crop sales were weak, though, at just 135k tonnes (5.0 million bushels), bringing 2020/21 total commitments to 78 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 98 mil bu.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 131k tonnes were at the bottom of market expectations of 100-250k tonnes, but still were in line with the average “needed” sales pace of roughly 100k tonnes/week in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Total commitments are down roughly 8% from last year vs the USDA projecting exports to be down only 1% on the year. SBM sales from this point forward last year averaged 91k tonnes/week. Soybean oil sales of 19k tonnes were in line with market expectations of 5-30k tonnes and easily met the mere 4k tonnes/week average “needed” sales pace, but were the lowest in 10 weeks. Total commitments remain up 48% from last year, strongly ahead of the USDA’s projected 24% increase in exports this year.
