-Corn sales slightly below expectations
-Soybean sales within expectations
-Wheat sales minimal
-SBM/SBO sales as expected
U.S. old crop corn sales, for the week ended 4/21/22, were 867k tonnes (34.1 million bushels), slightly below the range of market ideas of 900k-1.6 MMT, nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 34.7 mil bu, above last year’s same-week sales of 20.5 mil bu and, most importantly, continue to run well above the average pace of 11.1 mil bu/week we estimate is needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection. Over the last five weeks, old crop corn sales have averaged 35.4 mil bu/week vs 22.0 mil/week during the same period last year. This week’s activity included 735k tonnes of corn sold to China, putting their 21/22 unshipped purchases at 5.76 MMT vs 12.48 MMT at this time last year. Total commitments of 2.264 billion bushels are still down 15.1% from last year’s 2.666 billion, but gaining. New crop sales of 843k tonnes (33.2 mil bu) were at the bottom end of market expectations of 800k-1.25 MMT and included 612k tonnes to China, putting total sales for 22/23 now at 166 mil bu vs new crop sales at this time last year of 106 mil bu. China has 8.4 MMT of new crop corn bought so far vs 10.7 MMT a year ago.
U.S. old crop soybean sales were 481k tonnes (17.7 mil bu), within market expectations of 250-800k tonnes, nearly unchanged from last week’s 16.9 mil bu, above last year’s 10.7 mil bu and continuing substantially above the minimal 1.1 mil bu/week average we estimate is needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.115 billion bushel export projection. This week’s activity included new net old crop purchases of 77k tonnes, bringing their 21/22 total purchases so far to 29.8 MMT vs 35.7 MMT last year, with unshipped purchases sitting at 2.3 MMT vs 766k tonnes a year ago. Total commitments of 2.116 billion bushels are now down only 5.8% from last year’s 2.246 billion after being down more than 20% just 12 weeks ago vs USDA’s export projection reflecting an estimated 6.6% decline in exports for the year. New crop sales were 580k tonnes (21.3 mil bu), within expectations of 250-750k tonnes, bringing 22/23 total sales so far to 395 mil bu vs new crop sales at this time last year of 244 million. China bought 468k tonnes of new crop soybeans last week, bringing their 22/23 total purchases to 7.0 MMT so far vs no new crop purchases being on the books at this time last year.
U.S. old crop wheat sales last week were minimal at 32k tonnes (1.2 mil bu) vs market expectations of 0-175k. Despite the minimal sales of late, we estimate sales can run less than 1 million bushels/week over the final five weeks of the 21/22 marketing year and still reach the USDA’s 785 mil bu export projection when taking into account the difference between official Census Bureau data, which includes donations, and wheat product/flour exports. Total commitments of 709 million bushels are down nearly 25% from last year’s 940 million. New crop sales were disappointing again at only 124k tonnes (4.6 mil bu) vs expectations of 150-400k, with 22/23 total sales now at 83 mil bu vs new crop sales a year ago at this time of 95 million bushels.
U.S. soybean meal sales were 203k tonnes vs expectations of 100-250k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 55k tonnes and last year’s 164k, while also being above the roughly 126k tonnes/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. Over the last five weeks, SBM sales averaged 120k tonnes/week, right in line with the “needed” pace. Total commitments are up 2.4% from last year vs USDA estimating this year’s export to be up 3.1% on the year. There were no new crop sales vs ideas of 0-50k tonnes. Soybean oil sales were 3.5k tonnes vs expectations of 0-24k tonnes and, while minimal, we estimate sales can average less than 1k tonnes/week from this point forward and still reach the USDA’s export projection. Total commitments are down 1.9% from last year vs USDA estimating this year’s export to be essentially unchanged on the year.
