-Soybean sales at bottom of market expectations
-Corn sales at lower end of market expectations
-Wheat sales as expected for old crop, lower than expected new crop
-SBM sales at bottom of expectations/SBO sales as expected
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 4/16/20, were 345k tonnes (12.7 million bushels), at the bottom end of market expectations of 300-750k tonnes and follows the previous week’s poor sales of just 9.0 million bushels, while last year’s same-week sales were 19.6 million bushels. Chinese activity was essentially non-existent for the week. Total commitments now stand at 1.395 billion bushels, down 15% from last year’s 1.647 billion, leaving sales needing to average roughly 20.0 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection, while sales averaged just 7.7 million/week from this point forward last year. China will clearly need to make considerable old crop purchases and ship them by the end of August if there’s any hope of reaching the USDA’s target. While there is active talk of China buying soybeans for reserves of late, the timing is uncertain.
U.S. corn sales last week of 727k tonnes (28.6 mil bu) were at the lower end of market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT, were down from the previous week’s 35.7 million bushels and were a 15-week low. The largest purchases of the week went to Mexico with only 238k tonnes. Total commitments of 1.393 billion bushels are still down 22% from last year’s 1.790 billion and will require sales to average roughly 14.5 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 9.2 million/week from this point forward. Over the last 8 years, corn sales through the end of August averaged 13.8 million bushels/week, largely due to 17/18’s 22.1 mil/week and 15/16’s 27.0 mil/week. In the other six years, sales averaged 10.2 mil bu/week from this point forward.
Old crop wheat sales of 245k tonnes (9.0 mil bu) were within market expectations of 100-350k tonnes and continue at a pace more than sufficient to support the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection. Total commitments of 936 million bushels are nearly identical to last year’s 931 million with only 6 full weeks left in the marketing year vs USDA projecting a 5.2% increase in exports on the year. The actual shipment pace, though, continues to notably lag so it will likely come down to whether there is a late season push to load old crop purchases if the USDA’s projection it to be met. New crop sales were just 155k tonnes (5.7 mil bu), below expectations of 200-500k tonnes and brought 2020/21 total sales to 68 million bushels, exactly in line with new crop sales at this time last year.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 103k tonnes were at the bottom of market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, were the lowest in five weeks (2nd lowest of last 15 weeks), were notably below last year’s same-week sales of 329k tonnes, but still met the roughly 93k tonnes/week average “needed” sales pace to reach the USDA’s export projection. Sales from this point forward last year also averaged 93k tonnes/week. Soybean oil sales of 21.4k tonnes were within expectations of 8-35k tonnes and were little-changed from the previous week’s 21.2k tonnes. Soybean oil sales only need to average around 6k tonnes/week in order to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 11.5k/week average from this point forward.
