-Soybean sales minimally positive – within expectations
-Corn sales at bottom of expectations – still more than “needed”
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM/SBO sales as expected
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 4/15/21, were minimal at 64k tonnes (2.4 million bushels), but were within market expectations of -100k to +250k tonnes while continuing the string of minimal sales over the last five weeks in particular, averaging a mere 1.4 million bushels/week during the period. Over the last nine weeks, a total of 38.3 million bushels of old crop soybeans have been sold (4.3 million/week average), aided by a single-week sale of 12.9 million bushels. This week’s activity again included net cancellations by China of 51k tonnes, bringing their outstanding (unshipped) sales on the books down to 714k tonnes, but could still be 1.2-1.3 MMT taking into account sales to unknown. More importantly, recent sales activity has actually fallen below levels we estimate may be needed in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export estimate. Based on estimated carry-over sales to next year and the difference between official Census Bureau exports and Export Sales data, we see soybean sales needing to average roughly 4.0 million bushels/week through the end of the marketing year as total commitments are still “only” at 2.235 billion bushels vs teh 1.4 million/week average over the last five weeks. New crop sales of 315k tonnes (11.6 mil bu) were within expectations of 250-500k tonnes (130k unknown/130k Pakistan/none China) and brings 2021/22 total commitments to 228 mil bu vs 35 million in new crop sales at this time last year.
U.S. corn sales last week of 388k tonnes (15.3 million bushels) were at the bottom of market expectations of 300-800k tonnes, but much more importantly, continue to run stronger than “needed” based on the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection. In fact, with total commitments already at 2.645 billion bushels, when taking into account the difference between official Census exports as well as estimated carry-over sales to next year, we see sales on the books already being enough to reach the USDA’s projection as we continue to expect 2020/21 exports to prove closer to 2.800 billion bushels in the end. There were net reductions in sales to China for the week of 124k tonnes (switched to S. Korea and Taiwan), but they still have 13.7 MMT (539 mil bu) in unshipped sales officially on the books and may be closer to 15.0 MMT taking into account sales to unknown. China shipped 560k tonnes of corn last week, according to Export Sales data, and will need to pick up the pace to around 700-750k tonnes/week over the remaining 19 weeks of the marketing year if they are to fully ship their outstanding sales on the books, which will be a key determinant to reaching our 2.800 billion bushel export ideas. New crop sales were minimal at 30k tonnes, with 2021/22 total commitments at 84 million bushels vs new crop sales of 94 million at this time last year.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 240k tonnes (8.8 mil bu) were slightly above market expectations of 0-200k tonnes and put 2020/21 total commitments at 932 million bushels vs 936 million a year ago. Over the last four weeks, old crop wheat sales averaged 4.8 million bushels/week, in line with our estimated “needed” pace of 3.9 million/week in order for exports to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection with six weeks left in 2020/21. New crop sales of 374k tonnes (13.7 mil bu) were modest but within expectations of 200-500k tonnes and included 65k tonnes to China. Total commitments for 2021/22 now stand at 87 million bushels vs last year’s new crop sales at this time of 68 million.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 124k tonnes were within expectations of 50-225k tonnes, while keeping pace with average “needed” sales of roughly 120k tonnes in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. While SBM sales have slowed of late, they have still averaged 126k tonnes/week over the last five weeks. Soybean oil sales were minimal at 5.7k tonnes, technically within expectations of -5 to +20k tonnes, but reflected the 3rd out of the last 4 weeks (9 of last 12 weeks) in which sales were below the average “needed” pace as the USDA’s export projection continues to look too high without several weeks of abnormally strong sales before the end of the marketing year. For reference, sales from this point forward last year average 13.2k tonnes/week, indicating sales need to run 15%+ larger than last year to reach the USDA’s projection. Total commitments are now down 32% from last year vs USDA estimating exports to be down 12% on the year.
