-Soybean sales within expectations – continue seasonal decline
-Corn sales higher than expected – 4-week high
-Wheat sales within expectations
-SBM sales within expectations/remain solid, SBO sales respectable
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 3/11/21, of 202k tonnes (7.4 million bushels) were within market expectations of 0-400k tonnes and compared to year ago sales this week of 27.2 million bushels and the most-recent 3-week average sales of 7.9 million bushels/week. While essentially any level of sales would be above the roughly 2.5 million bushels/week we estimate is needed based on the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection, we would note the decline in sales of late has been following the same pattern/levels of sales experienced in the last several instances (2013/14, 2012/13, 2010/11) when March-August average sales ran at historically minimal levels which each of those years’ sales averaging 3 mil bu/week or less through the end of the marketing year. Each of those years saw several weeks of decent net cancellations during the April-August period and that likely will need to be the case again this year if exports are to not exceed the USDA’s current projection. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of a minimal 5.5k tonnes (66k tonnes switched from unknown). Total commitments of 2.228 billion bushels compare to last year’s 1.286 billion. For comparison, last year’s soybean sales from this point forward averaged 19.2 million bushels/week.
U.S. corn sales last week were 986k tonnes (38.8 mil bu), above market expectations of 300-750k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 15.6 mil bu and were a 4-week high. New sales to China for the week were minimal at 13k tonnes, but there was a notable switch of 612k tonnes of prior “unknown” sales to China. The switch brings China’s official purchases on the books to roughly 22.4 MMT, taking into account this week’s reported purchases, and likely closer to 25 MMT based on estimated unknown sales likely being Chinese. Total commitments of 2.382 billion bushels compare to 1.142 billion at this time last year, leaving sales needing to average roughly 7.4 million bushels/week for the rest of the marketing year based on the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 25.5 million/week average from this point forward. We continue to feel exports will exceed the USDA’s projection by at least 100 million bushels.
U.S. wheat sales of 390k tonnes (14.3 mil bu) were within market expectations of 150-500k tonnes, comparable to last week’s 12.1 mil bu, but better than the most-recent 4-week average of 10.3 mil bu. Activity for China included 130k tonnes switched from unknown, but essentially no new sales for the week. With only 11 full weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year, wheat sales only need to average roughly 5.5 million bushels/week based on the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection, but it continues to be a matter of actual shipments vs sales to reach the USDA’s estimate. That being said, there has been an increase in shipments of late so the USDA’s projection is still certainly in play. Total commitments of 901 million bushels are up 2% from last year’s 881 million, in line with the USDA projected increase for the year. New crop sales this week were only 5.1 million bushels, bringing 21/22 total commitments to 38 million vs 22 million at this time last year.
Soybean meal sales remain solid with 235k tonnes sold last week, within expectations of 100-300k tonnes, above the roughly 121k tonnes/week “needed” to reach the USDA’s export projection and slightly better than the most-recent 3-week average of 203k tonnes. Total commitments are up 2.6% from last year, while USDA is estimating exports up 1.2% on the year. Over the last 10 weeks, SBM sales averaged a rather stout 268k tonnes/week. Soybean oil sales finally showed some signs of life at 19.1k tonnes, the highest in 7 weeks and much-improved from the minimal 3.7k/week average over the previous five weeks. Market expectations this week were 0-30k tonnes. Despite the solid week, the USDA’s export projection remains in doubt as SBO sales still will need to average roughly 15.5k tonnes/week, a considerable improvement from the overall sales pace of late. Since mid-January, SBO sales have averaged only 8.4k tonnes/week vs 32.0k/week during the same period last year.
