-Soybean sales within expectation but quite modest again – with a caveat
-Corn sales minimal -well below expectations
-Wheat sales within expectations but limited
-SBM sales within expectations, SBO sales minimal again
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 2/25/21, were 334k tonnes (12.3 million bushels), within market expectations of 100-500k tonnes, but appeared better than they actually were as the previous week’s sales were revised down to only 1.1 million bushels from the originally-reported disappointing 6.2 million bushels. Combining the two weeks, sales still averaged a mere 6.7 million bushels in each week. This week’s activity also reflected net reductions in China’s purchases of 62k tonnes. Total commitments of 2.210 billion bushels remain up a massive 77% from last year’s 1.250 billion, leaving sales only needing to average a minimal 2.3 million bushels/week during March-August so the recent sharp slowdown in sales is exactly what is needed, but it still psychologically disappointing to the market. New crop saw China buy 198k tonnes putting total commitments for 2021/22 at 179 million bushels vs only 13 million bushels in total new crop sales at this time last year.
U.S. corn sales last week were very disappointing at only 116k tonnes (4.6 million bushels), easily a marketing year low (previous low was prior week’s 17.8 million) and well below market expectations of 400-800k tonnes. While the snapshot numbers included net sales of 1.055 MMT to China, all of it was simply switches from unknown, with no new buying indicated for the week. Additionally, it appears there may have been up to 300k tonnes in previously-reported sales to unknown canceled this week, as well. Total commitments of 2.328 billion bushels are still up 122% from last year’s 1.049 billion, leaving sales needing to average roughly 9.1 million bushels/week during March-August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 27.2 million/week average from this point forward. While we continue to feel the USDA’s projection is likely to prove too low, the recent sharp pullback in sales activity provides USDA with a bit of wiggle room in holding steady on their estimate for the time being if they so choose.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 219k tonnes (8.1 million bushels) were within market expectations of 100-500k tonnes, but reflected another week of rather modest activity following the previous week’s 6.1 million bushels in net sales. While wheat sales only need to average roughly 7.0 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection, there are still three months to go in the marketing year and there has been a clear pullback in sales of late. Similar to corn, Chinese activity reflected a 66k tonnes increase in commitments, but all of it was switches from unknown. Total commitments of 874 million bushels are now up 2.6% from last year’s 852 million after being up nearly 13% on the year in early December. The USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection reflects an estimated 2% increase from last year.
U.S. soybean meal sales were respectable at 187k tonnes, within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, up modestly from the previous week’s 160k tonnes and again easily meeting the roughly 137k tonnes/week “needed” sales pace based on the USDA’s export projection. While SBM sales have slowed a bit in recent weeks, they’re still running at a respectable pace. Total commitments of 8.133 MMT are essentially unchanged from last year, while USDA is estimating exports up 1% on the year so sales will likely need to run modestly better than last year’s 128k tonnes/week through the end of the marketing year. Soybean oil sales continue to struggle 5.5k tonnes sold last week (0-25k expected), which were actually the best of the last four weeks as a total of 13.9k tonnes of SBO were sold during the period. That compares to estimated weekly sales needing to average roughly 19k tonnes based on the USDA’s export projection so at least a few very strong weeks of sales are needed to change the suddenly concerning soybean oil export program. Total commitments of 598k tonnes are now down 18% from last year vs USDA projection annual exports down only 3%. We would not be surprised if USDA lowers their export projection in next week’s WASDE report, which could help add a little breathing room to the balance sheet.
