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-Soybean sales larger than expected
-Corn sales larger than expected
-Wheat sales lower than expected
-SBM sales larger than expected, SBO as expected

U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 1/07/21, of 908k tonnes (33.4 million bushels) were an 8-week high, were up strongly from the previous week’s mere 1.3 million bushels and were above market expectations of 300-700k tonnes. Over the last four weeks, soybean sales have averaged 17.2 million bushels/week. New net sales to China were solid at 574k tonnes, which included switches of 264k tonnes from unknown and cancellations of 80k. Total commitments of 2.046 billion bushels remain up 83% from last year’s 1.118 billion, leaving soybean sales needing to average only around 6 million bushels/week over the rest of 2020/21 to reach the USDA’s 2.230 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 19.0 million bushel/week average. Needless to say, a massive slowdown in sales must begin to be seen sooner than later in order for exports to not exceed the USDA’s current projection, which the balance sheet simply could not handle based on current estimates. New crop sales last week were 326k tonnes, 66k reported as China and 260k as unknown, likely China as well.

U.S. corn sales last week of 1.434 MMT (56.6 million bushels) were above market expectations of 700k-1.2 MMT, up considerably from the previous week’s 29.5 million bushels and were a 4-week high. Sales activity to China was limited over the last week at only 20k tonnes (70k switched from unknown), with the largest buyer being Japan with 335k tonnes. Total commitments of 1.787 billion bushels are up 135% from last year’s 760 million, leaving sales needing to average roughly 2.0 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s just-lowered 2.550 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 30.2 million/week average from this point forward. We continue to question the USDA’s export estimate cut.

U.S. wheat sales last week were 222k tonnes (8.2 million bushels), below market expectations of 250-500k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 10.0 million bushels, last year’s same-week sales of 23.9 million bushels and were an 8-week low. Despite the rather modest sales pace of late, total commitments of 774 million bushels are still up nearly 8% from last year’s 720 million, with sales only needing to average roughly 10 million bushels/week through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection vs last year’s 13.5 million/week average from this point forward.

U.S. soybean meal sales were quite strong at 337k tonnes, a new marketing year high, exceeding market expectations of 100-300k tonnes and comparing to the most-recent 4-week average sales of 171k tonnes/week. Weekly sales activity was quite widespread, without a specific standout. Total commitments are up 5% from last year vs USDA estimating 2020/21 exports to be up 1.2% from last year, with sales needing to average roughly 161k tonnes/week in order to reach the USDA’s export projection, exactly the same average weekly sales pace from this point forward last year. Soybean oil sales last week of 11.1k tonnes were within market expectations of 5-30k tonnes, with total commitments of 502k tonnes up 8.1% from last year vs USDA estimating 2020/21 exports to be down 3% on the year. We estimate SBO sales will need to average roughly 19k tonnes/week in order to reach the USDA’s projection vs last year’s 22.3k/week average from this point forward.

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