-Soybean sales minimal – sharply below expectations
-Corn sales at lower end of expectations
-Wheat sales at bottom end of expectations
-SBM sales as expected/SBO sales lower than expected
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 12/31/20, were minimal at only 37k tonnes (1.4 million bushels), sharply below market expectations of 400-800k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 21.1 million bushels and, needless to say, a marketing year low. New net sales to China were 188k tonnes, but it was a messy week of switches/re-allocations as Chinese activity included cancellations of 347k tonnes and switches of previously reported sales to unknown and South Korea of 462k and 66k tonnes, respectively. It also appears there were net cancellations of sales to unknown of around 117k tonnes, as well. Total commitments of 2.012 billion bushels remain well above last year’s 1.094 billion bushels, leaving sales needing to average roughly 6.0 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 19.2 mil bu/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales last week of 749k tonnes (29.5 mil bu) were in the lower end of market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, down from the previous week’s 38.0 million, but still above last year’s minimal holiday-week sales of 6.4 million bushels. Over the last three weeks, corn sales averaged 31.0 mil bu/week vs 61.1 mil/week the three weeks prior, but still better than last year’s 17.3 mil/week during the same period. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of only 20k tonnes, but saw 70k tonnes switched from “unknown.” Total commitments of 1.730 billion bushels compare to 729 million last year, leaving sales needing to average roughly 25.7 million bushels/week through the end of 2020/21 to reach the USDA’s 2.650 bil bu export projection vs last year’s 30.2 mil/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 275k tonnes (10.1 mil bu) were at the bottom of market expectations of 250-500k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 19.1 million bushels and were the 3rd lowest of the 31 weeks in 2020/21 so far. There were new sales to China of 55k tonnes reported to China this week (47k HRS, 3k HRW, 5 white). Total commitments of 766 million bushels continue to maintain the 10% year-over-year gain seen since mid-October. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 11.1 mil bu/week through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s 985 mil bu export projection vs last year’s 14.0 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 124k tonnes were within market expectations of 75-250k tonnes and up from the previous week’s 76k tonnes, but below the roughly 162k tonnes/week we estimate is needed based on the USDA’s annual export projection. A slowdown in sales during the holidays is typical so we don’t make too much of the recently weaker sales at this point. Total commitments are up 6% from last vs USDA estimating annual exports to be nearly unchanged on the year. Soybean oil sales were minimal at 3.5k tonnes, below expectations of 20-65k tonnes but not all that surprising after the previous two weeks’ solid sales of 60.7k and 21.0k tonnes, respectively. Total commitments are up 14.7% from last year vs USDA’s annual export projection reflecting an estimated 3.1% decline in exports on the year.