-Corn sales in line with expectations
-Soybean sales in line with expectations
-Wheat sales slightly above range of expectations
-SBM sales slightly above expectations/SBO sales as expected
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 10/07/21, were 1.040 MMT (40.9 million bushels), in line with market expectations of 700k-1.6 MMT, down slightly from the previous week’s 49.9 million and well above year ago poor same-week sales of 25.8 million bushels, which were the lowest of the first 10 weeks of the marketing year last year. The largest sales of the week, once again, went to Mexico with 812k tonnes, bringing their total purchases for 2021/22 so far to 7.1 MMT vs 4.9 MMT on the books at this time last year, while Chinese activity remains essentially non-existent, not buying a meaningful amount of U.S. corn since mid-June. Given their previous significant buying of new crop crop back during Jan-Mar, they currently have 11.9 MMT of U.S. corn bought for 2021/22 vs 10.1 MMT a year ago, but again, they have been absent from the U.S. market for months now. Total commitments of 1.087 billion bushels are up 4% from last year, but very likely to fall below year ago levels in the coming weeks as corn sales over the next three weeks last year averaged 88 million bushels/week. Based on the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 29.6 million bushels/week moving forward vs last year’s 37.2 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 1.148 MMT (42.2 mil bu) were in line with expectations of 600k-1.4 MMT and continued the steady pace of sales seen over the first six weeks of 2021/22 which have averaged 41.8 million bushels/week. The sales pace so far, though, pales in comparison to last year’s, which saw sales this week of 94.7 million bushels and averaged 101 million bushels/week over the first 6 weeks of 2020/21. This week’s activity included net sales to China of 381k tonnes, with 274k tonnes sold to Mexico. China now has 13.1 MMT of U.S. soybeans on the books vs 23.7 MMT at this time last year. With the slow sales to China, total commitments of 670 million bushels are now down 39% from last year’s 1.585 billion, leaving sales needing to average roughly 24.1 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 15.3 million/week average from this point forward. While last year’s sales from this point forward last year were historically weak, the current “needed” sales pace reflects the need for sales being comparable to those of the previously five years, which averaged 23.4 million/week, potentially a tall task if the modest start to this year’s sales program is any indication.
U.S. wheat sales last week were solid at 568k tonnes (20.9 million bushels), slightly above the range of market expectations of 250-500k tonnes, up solidly from the previous week’s 12.1 million bushels and were the 2nd best of 19 weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year so far. Total commitments, though, of 440 million bushels remain down 20% from last year vs USDA currently projecting 2021/22 exports to be down 12% on the year. While the overall sales pace this year has run consistently weaker than last year, wheat sales will need to average roughly 11.8 million bushels/week from this point forward to reach the USDA’s export projection, exactly the same as last year’s sales pace over the rest of the year.
In the first full week of the 2021/22 soybean product marketing years, sales were respectable at 365k tonnes for soybean meal, a bit above expectations of 100-320k tonnes, while soybean oil sales of 19.8k tonnes were within expectations of -5 to +30k tonnes. At the official start of 2021/22, SBM total commitments of 4.054 MMT compare to 3.619 MMT at this time last year, with sales needing to average roughly 162k tonnes/week over the entire marketing year based on the USDA’s current export projection, which would be nearly identical to last year’s average weekly sales. Soybean oil total commitments of 105k tonnes are starting the year well behind last year’s 178k, but given the USDA’s 1.250 billion pound export projection being down significantly from last year’s 1.715 billion pounds, SBO sales will only need to average roughly 7.4k tonnes/week vs last year’s 9.5k/week average.