-Corn sales within expectations
-Soybean sales within expectations
-Wheat sales within expectations
-SBM sales lower than expected/SBO net cancellations
NOTE: This week’s data reflects the start of the 21/22 marketing years for corn and soybeans.
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 9/02/21, the start of the 2021/22 marketing year, were 906k tonnes (35.7 million bushels), within expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT and put total commitments at 958 million bushels vs 742 million last year as the new marketing year gets underway. The largest sales of the week went to Mexico with 334k tonnes, followed by 235k to unknown, while there was no new activity for the week by China. China currently has 11.9 MMT of U.S. corn on the books for 2021/22 vs 8.9 MMT bought at this time last year. Given the strong early sales and USDA estimating this year’s exports at 2.400 billion bushels vs 2.775 billion last year, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 27.3 million bushels/week over the course of 21/22 vs last year’s average sales of 39.5 million bushels/week.
U.S. soybean sales of 1.472 MMT (54.1 mil bu) were within expectations of 1.0-1.6 MMT, kicking off the 21/22 marketing year with total commitments of 773 million bushels vs 1.096 billion bushels, while activity for the week was led by China with 764k tonnes bought, followed by 454k tonnes for unknown and then dropping to 79k tonnes by Mexico. China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans for 21/22 of 9.4 MMT remain sharply behind last year’s 15.9 MMT bought at this time. Based on the USDA’s 2.055 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 24.8 million bushels/week over the course of the marketing year vs last year’s 23.3 million/week average.
U.S. wheat sales 388k tonnes (14.3 mil bu) were within expectations of 200-450k tonnes and were actually a 6-week high, which isn’t saying much, as total commitments of 361 million bushels remain down 23% from last year’s 470 million vs USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection reflecting an estimated 12% decline for the year. The largest sales of the week went to Mexico with 128k tonnes. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.3 million bushels/week during Sept-May in order to reach the USDA’s annual target, exactly the same as year ago sales from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week were lackluster with 61k tonnes old crop and 48k tonnes new crop vs expectations of 0-100k and 75-300k tonnes, respectively. However, old crop sales are already at levels to allow the USDA’s export projection to be reached, while 21/22 sales of 2.106 MMT remain above last year’s new crop sales at this time of 1.871 MMT. Soybean oil sales remain extremely disappointing with old crop net cancellations of 1.6k tonnes and new crop sales of only 0.1k tonnes vs expectations of 0-10k and 0-12k tonnes, respectively. Old crop total commitments are now down 46% from last year vs USDA estimating exports down 40% on the year, while a mere 1.5k tonnes of SBO has been sold for next year vs new crop sales at this time last year of 102k tonnes.
