-Corn sales sharply higher than expected
-Soybean sales towards lower end of expectations
-Wheat sales slightly above expectations, but still modest
-SBM/SBO sales as expected, but remain solid
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 4/02/20, were very strong at 1.849 MMT (72.8 million bushels), notably exceeding market expectations of 700k-1.2 MMT and setting a new marketing year high in surpassing the previous high set just two weeks ago of 71.4 million bushels. Corn sales over the last five weeks combined of 280 million bushels dwarfed last year’s same-period sales of 127 million bushels. Japan was very aggressive last week buying 579k tonnes, while South Korea bought 250k tonnes and Mexico 181k tonnes. The strong pickup in sales is exactly what has been needed if the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection has a chance of being reached. Total commitments of 1.329 billion bushels are still down nearly 23% from last year’s 1.722 billion, but have come a long way back with the USDA’s 16.5% estimated decline in annual exports in sight. USDA is likely to leave their export estimate unchanged today as a result of the impressive sales of late. Corn sales will still need to average roughly 16.2 million bushels/week over the final 21 weeks of 2019/20 to reach the USDA’s estimate vs last year’s 11.6 million/week average from this point forward. Solid new crop sales of 609k tonnes (24.0 million bushels) were also seen this week, but were expected based on previously-reported sales to China of 504k tonnes.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 524k tonnes (19.2 million bushels) were in the lower portion of market expectations of 400-900k tonnes and were the lowest in four weeks, but still beat last year’s same-week sales of 10.0 million bushels. Sales to China of 144k tonnes were reflected in this week’s data, along with 104k tonnes to Mexico. Despite soybean sales averaging nearly 28 million bushels/week over the last four weeks, we still feel USDA may/should lower their export projection later today as sales are so far behind, needing to average roughly 21.5 million bushels/week through the end of August vs last year’s 8.6 million/week average from this point forward. Reaching their 1.825 billion bushel export estimate, we feel, will require China to purchase at least another 5 MMT in old crop soybeans before all is said and done. Total commitments of 1.374 billion bushels are down 14.7% from last year’s 1.611 billion, while the USDA is currently estimating soybean exports up 4.4% this year.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 259k tonnes (9.5 million bushels) beat weak market expectations of 50-200k tonnes and were well above the average “needed” sales pace of only around 4 million bushels/week over the final 8 weeks in order for exports to potentially reach the USDA’s 1.000 billion bushel target. Sales typically slow to a crawl over the final 4-6 weeks of the year so a few decent weeks of sales are still needed. Total commitments of 920 million bushels are up 1.8% from last year’s 904 million, while USDA is currently estimating 2019/20 exports up 6.8% from last year. New crop sales were weak, though, at just 117k tonnes (4.3 million bushels) vs expectations of 150-350k tonnes, with 2020/21 sales on the books now at 47 million bushels vs 51 million in new crop sales at this time last year.
U.S. soybean meal sales were respectable at 193k tonnes, in line with market expectations of 100-250k tonnes and up from the previous week’s 125k tonnes, while also beating last year’s same-week sales of 152k tonnes. Total commitments are now down just 5.2% from last year after being down nearly 20% in early 2020, on their way to reaching the USDA’s target of a 2.6% decline in annual exports. SBM sales will need to average roughly 87k tonnes/week through the end of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s export estimate vs 111k/week average from this point forward last year. Soybean oil sales were 25.1k tonnes, in line with expectations of 8-40k and, while they were down from the extremely strong sales the previous two weeks of 67k and 56k tonnes, they continue to notably outpace the USDA’s export projection in which only 2k tonnes/week in sales are needed. Accordingly, USDA should be raising their export projection in today’s WASDE report. Total commitments are currently up 49% from last year vs USDA estimating exports up just 8.2% year-over-year.
USDA reported sorghum sales last week of 374k tonnes (14.7 million bushels) with 186k tonnes reported to China and 187k tonnes to unknown (also likely China).
